Röd öppning Red Opening 7 November 2023

From the US to Ukraine, the Gaza war will change the world

Conflict in the Middle East is bad news for liberals and helpful for Putin and Trump

Gideon Rachman FT 6 November 2023

https://www.ft.com/content/917a006d-db2c-45ce-a0dd-cd92749fe7b6


If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?



Joe Biden’s weak polling numbers spark alarm among Democrats

https://www.ft.com/content/6d53d7ab-a9cf-4b46-a738-b78aa825b5b2


Biden’s swing-state slip and the unpredictability of the Israel-Hamas conflict set the stage for 2024.

John Authers Blooomberg 7 november 2023

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-07/biden-israel-election-year-markets-see-early-bombshells


A Trump win would change the world

Were he to return to the White House, the implications for the US, its allies and the global economy are sure to be profound

Martin Wolf

https://www.ft.com/content/4a14c19e-8285-4688-aa19-542023520798


Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable

Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable (economist.com)







My question is why so many economists got the inflation outlook so wrong.

Unemployment is still near a 50-year low

Trying to get the overall level of prices back to what it was before an inflationary shock, as opposed to stabilizing them, is almost always a bad idea. 

Winston Churchill tried that after World War I; the result was that Britain went through a lost decade of high unemployment

The bottom line is that disinflation is real — indeed, spectacular. 

Paul Krugman 7 November 2023



Churchill was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1924 under Stanley Baldwin and oversaw Britain's disastrous return to the Gold Standard, which resulted in deflation, unemployment, and the miners' strike that led to the General Strike of 1926.

This decision prompted the economist John Maynard Keynes to write The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill, arguing that the return to the gold standard would lead to a world depression.

Churchill later regarded this as one of the worst decisions of his life; he was not an economist and that he acted on the advice of the Governor of the Bank of England, Montagu Norman.



Inflation is dying and bonds are a screaming buy

When the next global recession hits in earnest, central banks will have to again slash rates, Ambrose

Inflation is dying and bonds are a screaming buy (telegraph.co.uk)

















Det kommer sannolikt ännu en höjning av den rörliga bolåneräntan från 4 till 4,25 procent. 

Men nästa höst kan den till och med komma att sänkas. Bolåntagare ska dock inte tro att det blir en snabb räntenedgång till de nivåer som gällde innan krisen

Dan Lucas DN 7 november 2023




European Commission to endorse membership talks with Ukraine

Brussels will advise leaders to only agree a start date for formal talks once Ukraine adopts outstanding laws related to political asset declarations and lobbying, anti-oligarch measures and guarantees for national minorities.


Olha Stefanishyna Ukraine’s deputy PM in charge of EU and Nato integration


https://www.ft.com/content/8e088784-bd54-49e9-b710-520d84d42dc3



Olaf Scholz hails Germany’s ‘historic’ clampdown on illegal immigration

Berlin’s asylum package, which could see processing centres set up outside EU, scales back benefits for refugees



China Vanke, one of the oldest and largest real-estate companies in the country, 
is the latest Chinese developer to fall victim to a market selloff that has made investors worry about its liquidity. 




Global bankers gathering in Hong Kong 

were meant to discuss how they’re adapting to the financial world’s “complexity” and ended up dwelling on the potential for big blowups instead.

Deglobalization 

The growth of shadow banking - Roughly half of global financial assets are now in “the shadow sector,” UBS Group AG Chairman Colm Kelleher estimated.

“It’s a real cause of concern,” he said. “The next crisis, when it happens, will be in that sector. It’ll be a fiduciary crisis.”

The trouble is that big disruptions are often caused by unforeseen forces, said Morgan Stanley’s longtime leader James Gorman




Big Banks Cook Up New Way to Unload Risk

Banks are selling risk to hedge funds, private-equity firms through so-called synthetic risk transfers, expensive for banks but less costly than taking the full capital charges on the underlying assets. 

They are lucrative for the investors, who can typically get returns of around 15% or more, according to the people familiar with the transactions.



Office-sharing company WeWork filed for bankruptcy protection

four years since it was valued at $47 billion.



Robotar med mänsklig form utrustas med AI








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