Röd öppning Red Opening 16 November 2023

 

Tuesday, as we all know, saw an epic turn in the bond market. 

At last, Treasury yields plunged in response to weak inflation numbers that ruled out any more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and brought forward the moment when the central bank would pivot towards lower rates.

That was all very exciting. However, after another day of trading, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than it was last Thursday. 

So why does hope of an imminent cut keep recurring? 

There are many definitions, but if we say that a soft landing is a period of rising rates that doesn’t lead to even a quarter of negative economic growth, then there has been precisely one in the post-Volcker era. That came in the mid-1990s

John Authers 231116

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-16/soft-landing-bond-markets-turn-and-turn-but-there-s-no-pivot

The Senate voted 87 to 11 to clear the temporary funding patch 

and send it to President Biden, who is expected to sign it, just days before a deadline at midnight on Friday.

Averting an immediate shutdown crisis but leaving the path toward a longer-term agreement on government spending as rocky as ever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/us/republicans-house-spending.html

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Italy’s sovereign credit rating is due for a review by Moody’s Investors Service on Friday, 

with the possibility that the eurozone’s third-largest economy could get downgraded to junk.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/last-week-moodys-gave-a-shock-to-the-u-s-will-it-deliver-a-jolt-to-italy-bac10e54

While All Inflation Feels Bad, Housing Inflation Is the Worst

Since January 2021, home prices, despite a late 2022 dip, have risen 29%

... and mortgage rates have nearly tripled. 

The buyer of the typical home thus faces a monthly principal and interest payment of nearly $2,200, more than double the level of early 2021

If you own a house and have no plans to move, you might not care, or you might even enjoy your home rising in value. 

Greg Ip WSJ Nov. 15, 2023

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/while-all-inflation-feels-bad-housing-inflation-is-the-worst-f12f518d

Best books of 2023 — History

https://www.ft.com/content/d5f38896-34e3-419e-bb09-42f537b69e0a

Best books of 2023 — Economics

https://www.ft.com/content/31ced0bb-cdb7-43ae-aeea-fbcac8d1b9cd

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