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Röd öppning Red Opening 21 November 2023


“If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” 

Appearing before a Congressional committee back in 1987, then-Chair Alan Greenspan famously said, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” 

I detailed in my 2016 book on central banks, The Only Game in Town, that this was part of what Greenspan called a “language of purposeful obfuscation.” 

It was regarded, to quote the economist Alan Blinder, as a “turgid dialect of English” that used “numerous and complicated words to convey little if any meaning.”

Mohamed A. El-Erian


"Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief,"

Greenspan in October 2008

asset prices bubble bubbles Alan Greenspan (internetional.se)

De utsläppsnivåer som i nuläget förväntas år 2030 måste minskas med minst 28 procent, eller 16 miljarder ton, för att vara någorlunda i linje med en uppvärmning på 2 grader. 

Om uppvärmningen ska begränsas till 1,5 grader krävs en minskning med 42 procent, eller 24 miljarder ton.


China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already 
or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. 

China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter, seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe. 

This is a remarkable turn of events.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

China’s CO2 emissions may be falling already, in a watershed moment for the world (telegraph.co.uk)

Under två år har maten blivit 26 procent dyrare

Under samma tid har den allmänna prisökningen, inflationen mätt som KPI stigit med 17,5 procent.


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Att bekämpa förra årets inflation med räntehöjningar i dag är ingen bra idé. 

Särskilt i Sverige där arbetsmarknaden försvagas.  

Den starka svenska kronan

Från det historiska bottennappet mot euron i september är uppgången nu cirka 4,5 procent till kursen 11:42 kronor per euro. 

Mot dollarn har uppgången tagit fart i november, med ett lyft för kronkursen på nästan 7 procent till kursen 10:42 kronor per dollar. 

Expertisen är splittrad inför torsdagens räntebesked från Riksbanken. 

Flera tunga bedömare tror på en räntehöjning till – efter de åtta räntehöjningarna från 0 till 4 procent i styrränta sedan våren 2022.

Detta skulle enligt skolboken tala för en fortsatt kronförstärkning, om signalerna om att centralbankskollegor i Frankfurt och Washington är klara med räntehöjningarna stämmer.

SEB-ekonomerna räknar dock med att Riksbanken rättar in sig i ledet och tar paus i höjningarna.

t’s hard to overestimate the potential impact of Wednesday’s dramatic judgment by the Federal Constitutional Court, 

both on Germany’s longer-term fiscal policy and the continued existence of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fractious three-party alliance.

 A former finance minister under Angela Merkel, the Social Democrat chancellor is deeply involved in the effort to find a solution that respects the ruling in all its complexity and is legally watertight against future challenges, according to the people.

Coalition officials have set themselves an unofficial deadline to reach an agreement by Thursday noon at the latest, the people said. Lawmakers are due to meet immediately after that to put the finishing touches to the 2024 federal budget and solve any issues for this year’s finance plan, they added.


The repercussions of Germany’s top court striking down a domestic budgetary manoeuvre will spread to EU politics


This month, China’s new finance minister Lan Fo’an told markets what they had been waiting to hear — Beijing would boost budget spending to support a struggling post-pandemic recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

But while the message was welcomed by investors, many analysts question just how much budgetary firepower Beijing really has to boost flagging confidence and drive stronger economic momentum.

China is reluctant to increase leverage as it did after the financial crisis in 2008, when it unleashed a Rmb4tn stimulus then worth 13 per cent of gross domestic product


Förra året reste Ukrainas president Zelenskyj världen runt och togs emot som en hjälte. Men den här hösten är läget annorlunda.

 Stödet sviktar och fokus har flyttat till kriget mellan Israel och Hamas. Har Zelenskyj blivit dissad av väst och blir Putins Ryssland den stora vinnaren i ett utdraget krig? I studion: överstelöjtnant Joakim Paasikivi, utrikesreporter Carl Fridh Kleberg och Katarina Engberg, säkerhetspolitisk analytiker

10 years since 'Euromaidan' 

Ten years ago today, mass protests began in Kyiv against deepening ties with Russia in what would set the stage for today's conflict. 

Zelenskyy says Maidan protest 'the first victory in today's war'

What happened in Kiev's Maidan square?

On 20 February 2014, more than 50 anti-government protesters were shot dead in Kiev's Maidan square. The massacre triggered the collapse of Ukraine's pro-Russian government, prompting Moscow to annex Crimea and sparking a separatist war in the east.

The danger for investors comes as markets move past any pause to expecting rapid rate cuts.

Futures markets just two weeks ago had reflected expectations of a one-third chance of a higher rate by year-end. 

Now the market is pricing in a 100 per cent probability that benchmark rates will be kept on hold 

Powell’s August description of the Fed “navigating by the stars under cloudy skies” attracted some mockery at the time, but it is worth bearing in mind when faced with another bout of markets’ sunny forecasts for interest rates.

Jennifer Hughes

Two weeks ago

Världens mest googlade varumärke förra året var ”Shein”. 

Och att du eventuellt inte har en aning om vad Shein är spelar ingen roll för deras affärsmodell.

Det betyder bara att du antagligen är över 30 år gammal

Klädproduktionen i världen har dubblerats sedan år 2000. Vi köpte 60 procent fler plagg år 2014 än vad vi gjorde år 2000 och behöll kläderna hälften så länge.

Katrine Kielos-Marçal

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