Englund

  You’re Invited to Wall Street’s Private Party. Say You’re Busy. Small-time investors may soon gain easier access to so-called private markets. That usually means higher fees, greater risk, more conflicts of interest and a harder time selling. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/youre-invited-to-wall-streets-private.html Plender - As the IMF has warned, the rise and rise of private credit brings systemic risks https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/plender-as-imf-has-warned-rise-and-rise.html Private Credit’s Cracks The companies that get private credit loans are looking increasingly wobbly and banks are among those that could eventually be on the hook for losses. Many companies getting direct loans from private lenders are struggling to produce cash, by at least one key measure: At the end of 2024, more than 40% of borrowers had negative free cash flow from their businesses, the International Monetary Fund warned in a report this past week https://www.imf.org/-/media/Fil...

De experter SvD talat med tror att kriget pågår året ut.  – USA har varken någon fast utrikespolitik eller strategi. Det är många ryck fram och tillbaka. Det som kommer ut är huvudsakligen inrikespolitik och ämnat att infria vallöften,  säger Joakim Paasikivi, tidigare överstelöjtnant och numera geopolitisk rådgivare på advokatbyrån Mannheimer & Swartling. https://www.svd.se/a/4B8AVe/ukrainakriget-tar-inte-slut-i-ar-enligt-expert 2018-2023 var Klas Eklund Senior Economist vid advokatbyrån Mannheimer Swartling.  Mannheimer Swartling https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mannheimer_Swartling Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 25 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-25-april-2025.html

From betraying Ukraine to waging trade wars, the American president has proven to be an utter disaster How can anybody have supported Donald Trump in the first place?  It was a sign of desperation, I suppose, as the alternative – president Harris – promised to solidify the cult of identity politics, both in American life and around the world, undercut the West’s commitment to Israel and drive us all further into the quicksands of decline. Already, large majorities of the French, Germans, Italians, Spanish and Britons believe Trump is a threat to peace and security in Europe But is anybody confident that in 2025 the man will hand over power graciously? The most depressing aspect of all of this is that for many beleaguered ordinary people this was their last desperate hope. Telegraph 25 April 2025 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/25/trump-has-blown-his-chance-of-saving-the-west/ EU-federalisterna låtsas vara skrämda av Trump. Som vore han odödlig och president för evigt....

  Bessent och Svantesson på träff i New York https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/bessent-och-svantesson-pa-traff-i-new.html US Budget deficit https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-budget-deficit.html Why Zelensky can't and won't give up Crimea https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/why-zelensky-cant-and-wont-give-up.html Sverige är ett litet land; Paasikivi,  Klas Eklund, och Mannheimer & Swartling https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/sverige-ar-ett-litet-land-paasikivi.html The ‘User’s Guide’ plan Stephen Miran  has taken some big hits;  Mike Tyson everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-users-guide-plan-from-stephen-miran.html Experience shapes expectations https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/experience-shapes-expectations.html Nordea styrräntan i Sverige förblir oförändrad  på 2,25 procent till slutet av 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/riksbankens-prognos...

The great boxer Mike Tyson and once said that everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face. Similarly, the Trump administration had one for rebuilding the world economy with tariffs.  The plan was Stephen Miran’s A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, which must have been the most-viewed document by the financial world over the last six months.  Stunningly ambitious, it helped earn its author a gig as chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, birthed the concept of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” and was widely taken as the road map for Trump 2.0’s bid to reshape the world using tariffs. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf All of that said, the White House wanted a weaker dollar and has got it.  A Mar-a-Lago Accord of the kind envisaged in the “User’s Guide now looks unachievable. John Authers Bloomberg 25 april 2025 https://www.bloomberg....

  America’s sovereign-debt spiral https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/americas-sovereign-debt-spiral.html People keep asking me,  “When is the crisis you’re predicting going to happen?” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/huge-us-budget-deficit-fear-that-bond.html US Budget deficit ‘No idea’ of when market might view debt as too large, says president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget It is “political suicide” to advocate deficit reduction https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-us-fiscal-crisis-would-happen.html Förra året hade den federala staten knappt 7 000 miljarder dollar i utgifter men bara 5 000 miljarder i inkomster.  Under högkonjunktur, alltså. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/amerikansk-ekonomi-lever-pa-en.html US deficit near 8pc of GDP. A global accident waiting to happen. America will keep spending money like a drunken sailor until the world stops funding it Washington’s unchecked borrowing is evidence...

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternate_history Tidigare om detta https://internetional.se/bookskontrafaktisk.htm Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 25 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-25-april-2025.html

... rörelseresultat på omkring 400 Mkr, jämfört med samma period i fjol.  DI 25 april 2025 https://www.di.se/live/stark-marginal-for-skf-ser-fortsatt-svag-tillvaxt/

Treasury sell-off was primarily powered by a retrenchment of investors from the US government bond market The turmoil was also exacerbated by highly leveraged hedge fund strategies.  These trades have helped turn the club of big hedge funds that pursue them into vital pillars of the $29tn Treasury market Financial Times 25 April 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4309-afbf-f470250a4721 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to counteract the outsized hedge fund leverage he has repeatedly warned is a growing financial-stability risk. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/crack-down-on-hedge-funds-financial.html Scott Bessent  $29 trillion Dollar crisis https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/scott-bessent-us-treasury-secretary-tim.html

February 2014 mysterious masked commandos in unidentified green uniforms seized the local parliament and fanned out across the peninsula. Those "little green men" marked the start of Russia's war on Ukraine, which culminated in the 2022 full-scale invasion. In the words of opposition MP Iryna Gerashchenko "territorial integrity and sovereignty is a red line for Ukraine and Ukrainians". Trump made the point that "if [Volodymyr Zelensky] wants Crimea, why didn't they fight for it 11 years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?" Trump is correct that there is little chance of Ukraine regaining Crimea in the foreseeable future, and it is in reality - de facto - under Russian control. But that is a far cry from recognising it as legal. If a landgrab unrecognised by the international community is approved by the US as legal, what would that mean for international law and the principles of the UN charter? BBC 24 April 2025 https...

 ... ostensibly for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.  Optimism punctured when Bessent clarified US wouldn’t unilaterally lower tariffs on China And in a sign of their strains, the top US economic official had no meetings planned with his Chinese counterparts during the week, a time when they would usually hold talks. “Honestly, the US needs to earn our confidence back,” Sweden’s Minister of Finance Elisabeth Svantesson said in an interview. Bloomberg 24 April 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/trump-s-trade-whiplash-sinks-world-into-dreaded-uncertainty China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants talks. Beijing says claims it is nearing a deal with Washington to resolve the trade war are ‘fake news’ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/is-this-trumps-mitterrand-moment.html

Europeans see Ukraine’s security as vital to their own and want to defend the principle of no border changes by force, even if President Trump does not. An important core of large European countries — Poland, Germany, France, Britain, the Nordic nations and the Baltic nations — all see the security of Ukraine as vital to their own and say they are prepared to continue to aid Kyiv.  Even if they cannot realistically help Ukraine drive out the Russians,  they want to ensure that Ukraine can keep what it has and can continue to bleed Russia,  which has spent the past six months capturing a few villages at the price of scores of thousands of troops. New York Times 24 April 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/europe/europe-ukraine-russia-trump.html “it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/its-time-for-them-to-either-say-yes-or.html The first NATO Secretary General, Lord I...

  Is This Trump’s Mitterrand Moment?; Germany agreed to monetary union to get President Mitterand to agree to German reunification https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/is-this-trumps-mitterrand-moment.html The dollar has further to fall; chief economist at Goldman Sachs https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-dollar-has-further-to-fall-chief.html “it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/its-time-for-them-to-either-say-yes-or.html If America Walks Away From Ukraine, What Will Europe Do? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/if-america-walks-away-from-ukraine-what.html Guldpriset https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/a-historic-gold-rush-is-under-way-from-wall-street-to-main-street-dd3af3a5 Anna Stellinger ratades – EU-toppjobb gick till mindre meriterad tysk;  230 000 kronor i månadslön https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/anna-stellinger-ratades-eu-top...

  Readers of a certain age will recall how the French Socialist President swept into power in 1981 promising a far left agenda of government control over the private economy. The market reaction was brutal.  Within a year he had put socialism on pause and by 1983 he had abandoned most of it. He went on to serve two terms. Wall Street Journal 23 April 2025 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/francois-mitterrand-donald-trump-tariffs-trade-economy-markets-7e80c7e9 The Chinese Dream is to Xi what Maga is to Trump https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-chinese-dream-is-to-xi-what-maga-is.html China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants talks Beijing says claims it is nearing a deal with Washington to resolve the trade war are ‘fake news’ Financial Times 24 April 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/3e076fb5-3988-4e21-9119-3fc637afebb8 China demanded that the US revoke all unilateral tariffs and denied there were talks on reaching a trade deal, maintaining a defiant stan...

The EU wants to speed up processing asylum applications by creating a list of "safe countries of origin." Tunisia is on the list — despite a politically-motivated mass trial of the political opposition just last week. Over the weekend, Chaima Issa, a Tunisian writer and human rights activist, was sentenced to 18 years in prison. The daughter of a former political prisoner, Issa has been imprisoned in Tunisia since 2023 and is accused of "conspiracy against state security." DeutscheWelle 23 april 2025 https://www.dw.com/en/seeking-asylum-is-tunisia-really-a-safe-country-of-origin/a-72321644 Snabbare nej till asyl ska bli möjligt när EU-kommissionen vill skynda på genomförandet av sin asyl- och migrationspakt. Sju länder placeras på en första gemensam EU-lista över säkra ursprungsländer. Länderna på den föreslagna listan är Kosovo, Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypten, Indien, Marocko och Tunisien. Dessutom ska de länder som har accepterats som kandidatländer till EU – till ...

  Den 31 mars skrev Pieper på ett fyraårskontrakt, med 20 000 euro,  motsvarande cirka 230 000 kronor i månadslön  https://www.altinget.se/artikel/anna-stellinger-ratades-eu-toppjobb-gick-till-mindre-meriterad-tysk RE: Det är EUs metod att genom höga löner och skattefria pensioner köpa den styrande klassen i medlemsländerna. Det är därför så få vill öppet kritisera EU, eller klicka gilla för dem som gör det. Då kan man missa ett fint jobb i Bryssel, kanske. Copilot: Uttrycket "en åsna lastad med guld" tillskrivs ofta Filip II av Makedonien, Alexander den Stores far. Det sägs att han använde detta talesätt för att illustrera hur mutor och rikedom kunde övervinna även de starkaste försvar, som höga stadsmurar.  Det är en fascinerande metafor för maktens och rikedomens inflytande i historien. Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 24 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-24-april-2025.html

Demand for US assets cannot keep up with supply without a weaker currency I admit it: I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation and interest rates. But with all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5 per cent on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go. the real value of the dollar still stands nearly two standard deviations above its average  A decision by non-US investors to reduce their US exposure would thus almost certainly result in significant dollar depreciation. Dollar depreciation should not be confused with loss of the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency.  We have had large exchange rate moves without loss of the dollar’s dominant status in the past, and our baseline expectation is that the current move will be no different. Jan Hatz...

Vice President JD Vance said the US has issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a path forward to a peace deal, adding “it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.” Freezing the conflict along existing battle lines would be a far greater sacrifice for Ukraine,  which has sought to regain all territory in the country’s east and south seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea,  and following the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/vance-says-territory-concessions-needed-for-ukraine-russia-deal

  Since December 2011, overseas holdings of U.S. equities have grown from $3.8 trillion to $18.6 trillion, official data show, going from a quarter to a third of U.S. market capitalization.  In February, a forward price-earnings ratio of 22.5 for the S&P 500 was seen as justified. Now that long-run prospects have worsened, this has fallen to 18.7. Both are elevated by historical standards, and may partly be a rationalization of years of indiscriminate buying. “Equities respond a lot more to sentiment, which is reflected a lot more in flow. Fixed-income owners are a lot less price sensitive: for example, central banks just want to hold dollars and put them somewhere safe,”  said Altaf Kassam, Europe head of investment strategy and research at State Street Global Advisors. Wall Street Journal 23 April 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/what-drawn-out-capital-flight-could-do-to-u-s-markets-98b65dd9 There is a giant problem that commentators are ignoring. https://...

  Is this a turning point for the dollar?  And if so, in which direction? Kevin Warsh, Plaza https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/is-this-turning-point-for-dollar-and-if.html USA stadiga underskott i över fyra decennier har inte hindrat amerikansk BNP-utveckling att sopa banan  med exempelvis Japan, som visat handelsöverskott sedan 1981, och Tyskland, med handelsöverskott varje år sedan 2002. Nils Åkesson DI 26 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/det-ar-dollarn-bakom-allt-monetary.html RE: Kan denne duktige skribent verkligen ha kunnat bortse från den självklara förklaringen; hög inhemsk efterfrågan, QE och budgetunderskott, leder till fart i ekonomin, men underskott i handelsbalansen. Tvärtom i Tyskland, som till helt nyligen hade ett grundlagsfäst överskottsmål.    Tyskland släpper på skuldbromsen EU går från fredsprojekt till försvarsunion EU vinnare på Trump och Ukraina EU-federalisterna låtsas vara skrämda av Trump.  Som vore han o...