Iran holds the trump card
The last pre-war shipments are arriving in Europe,
if they have not already been sucked away by desperate Asian buyers willing to pay higher prices.
All Tehran must do is survive for another few months and wait for the oil crunch to really bite.
It would take at least 200,000 US ground troops and months of fighting to secure the long Iranian coastline and knock out the remaining missile launchers and drone units hidden in the mountains.
US navy is now expected to board and seize Chinese-flagged ships, constituting a direct attack on China’s energy supply chain. This is arguably an act of war – “the law of the jungle”, as Xi Jinping put it on Tuesday morning.
“We will never allow any foreign force to bully, oppress or subjugate us. Anyone who would attempt to do so will find themselves on collision force with a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people,” he said.
The world market for physical oil is already under extreme stress. The actual price for delivery in Europe today – “dated Brent FOB Northern Europe” – is trading at $145 to $150, a record premium over paper futures.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 14 April 2026
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/14/iran-has-trump-card-global-energy-crisis-getting-worse/
US Stocks Hover Near Record on Iran Peace Hopes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Pakistan Army Chief Lands in Tehran
Pakistan's Chief of Defense Forces and Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir
Pakistan’s army chief arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to help mediate talks between the US and Iran after the two sides failed to clinch a peace agreement on the weekend.
Bloomberg April 15, 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/pakistan-army-chief-lands-in-tehran-for-us-iran-mediation-talks
The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days
For Markets, the War Might as Well Be Over
That means the dollar is weakening again. And for some reason investors no longer think the US is terribly overvalued.
Stocks are nearly back to their all-time highs from the months before the conflict.John Authers bloomberg April 15, 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-04-15/iran-oil-for-markets-the-war-might-as-well-be-over
Olof Ehrenkrona, Den högste ledaren Khamenei och Ronald Reagan
Olof Ehrenkrona ställer frågan: Vem minns världen av igår som den såg ut den 27 februari 2026? Då fartygen seglade fritt i Persiska viken och försörjde världen med olja och gas.
Stockholmsbörsen tappade geisten i eftermiddagshandeln och
stängde omkring dagslägsta.
Rekordkväll på Wall Street – Tesla rusade
S&P nådde en ny rekordnivå och Nasdaq lyfte för elfte handelsdagen i rad drivet av fortsatt stora techuppgångar.
Tesla rusade över sju procent
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iran’s Regime Has Changed—for the Worse
The U.S.-Israeli attack fast-tracked the ascent of hard-liners and apocalyptic religious followers, raising doubts about a lasting peace.
They have flexed their muscles at home, intensifying their crackdown against domestic opposition through arrests, executions and threatening would-be protesters with lethal force. They have deployed regime supporters on the streets instead.
Rather than looking for a quick end to the conflict, they have launched repeated, unprovoked attacks on their Arab neighbors. They have found new leverage in their de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz, transit point for 20% of global oil supplies.
The Iranian delegation sent to Islamabad for the failed weekend talks with the U.S. included parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a pragmatic conservative, as well as politicians such as Ali Bagheri Kani, known for his fierce opposition to dialogue with the West in the past.
The wartime losses are putting Iranian leaders under economic pressure to reach a deal. But the enmity between the two sides is likely to endure.
Wall Street Journal April 14, 2026
En förlängning av vapenvilan mellan USA och Iran och ett återupptagande av förhandlingar närmar sig enligt medlare, skriver nyhetsbyrån AP.
Det var i onsdags i förra veckan som USA och Iran kom överens om en vapenvila om två veckor som löper ut den 22 april.
Banks’ soaring exposure to trading firms creating ‘inherent fragility’, warns S&P
‘Bifs’ replace ‘Piigs’ as Europe’s bond market whipping boys
Britain, Italy and France have borne the brunt of a sovereign debt sell-off sparked by the Iran war
The new grouping has echoes of the so-called Piigs — Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — a popular acronym during the European debt crisis more than a decade ago.
Such countries at the time faced high debt, bad loans in the banking system and high borrowing costs, but have improved their finances in recent years.
Financial Times 15 April 2026
Anders Borg (TT): Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker
- Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker.
Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna.
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