20 april 2026. Over the weekend, we learned that these things weren’t strictly true, vapenvilan löper ut på onsdag.

On Friday, while markets were still open, the Iranian leadership announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open, while the US declared that Iran was surrendering all its nuclear material.

Over the weekend, we learned that these things weren’t strictly true.

The flow of tankers through the waterway fell virtually to nothing a week into the conflict.

As oil traders point out, the effects wouldn’t yet be evident in much of the world, as it typically takes a tanker about six weeks to get from the Strait to New York and almost a month to reach Shanghai. Companies keep inventories of oil.

The problem is yet to make itself felt with full force

If Monday is a down day for the S&P 500, it will be only the second since the rally ignited on March 31, catalyzed at the time by a comment from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian that the country was ready to end the war but “needed guarantees.”

In the subsequent 14 trading days, the S&P rose 12.33%, marking only the fifth time this century it rallied so far this fast. It was the first such rally to bring the market to an all-time high.

John Authers Bloomberg April 20, 2026 at 6:00

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-04-20/hormuz-oil-markets-get-in-tune-to-the-strait-and-narrow

Don’t worry, everything is going great.

Photographer: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images North America

Divided leadership in Tehran, with the guns and power sadly in the wrong hands

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/divided-leadership-in-tehran-with-guns.html

En iransk delegation åker till Pakistan på tisdagen för nya samtal, enligt pakistanska källor, rapporterar nyhetssajten Nikkei Asia.

”Iran gjorde samma sak inför de första samtalen, men de anlände till slut”, uppgav källan.

Pakistan agerar medlare mellan parterna och intensifierar nu ansträngningarna för att förlänga vapenvilan mellan USA och Iran.

Den två veckors långa vapenvilan löper ut på onsdag.

https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-iran-vander-om-fredssamtal/

The war is currently more likely to escalate than to be resolved by negotiation

The good news is that both Iran and the US want a peace deal. The Iranians know how vulnerable they are to further aerial bombardment. The Americans understand the threat to the global economy from the continued closure of the strait.

The bad news is that the two sides distrust each other and remain far apart on all the crucial issues. These include nuclear enrichment, freedom of navigation, sanctions relief, the future of Lebanon and Israel, Iran’s missile programme and its support for regional proxies such as Hizbollah.

Escalation is likely because both the US and Iran seem to feel that they can force the other side to crack first.

Gideon Rachman FT 20 April 2026

https://www.ft.com/content/84566148-26de-4bb7-9d7c-d943c4c904ca?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Osäkerheten kring situationen i Mellanöstern satte prägel på börshumöret med höjda oljepriser som följd.

https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-ericsson-och-nibe-mot-strommen/

Buy the Dip

Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War

Images of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis—one of the biggest international policy failures of a presidency in recent times—had been looming large in his mind, people who have spoken to him said.

“If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter…with the helicopters and the hostages, it cost them the election,” Trump had said in March. “What a mess.”

Trump is dealing with his own fear about ordering troops into harm’s way where some will be injured and some not return home, similar to other presidents who have been at war, people familiar with the matter said.

Trump has resisted sending American soldiers to take Kharg Island, for example, the launch point for 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

While he was told the mission would succeed, and the territory’s capture would give the U.S. access to the strait, he worried there would be unacceptably high American casualties, the people said. They’ll be sitting ducks, the president said.

Wall Street Journal 18 April 2026

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca

The Carter hostage crisis usually refers to the Iran hostage crisis of 1979–1981, when Iranian students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans for 444 days.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/carter-hostage-crisis-ZcDobqLeQ8m.FgyjC3qaxw

Just as the market is prone to overreact it can be surprisingly slow to grasp the gravity of a really major crisis.

A big reason is psychological: It takes lots of evidence to convince people something unthinkable might be about to happen like major banks collapsing, a pandemic or actual fuel shortages.

Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal April 7, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/analysts-are-slow-to-recognize-a-crisis-482598a1