Strange and profound changes are under way; Hormuz, Globalisering

In the Strait of Hormuz, tankers have been burning, along with what remains of the post-1945 American-led order.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s new baseline forecast for global growth this year is exactly the same as it was six months ago and stock prices have gone up. 

 In the cold war, political crises over Cuba or Berlin had little economic relevance. Today, globalisation means that about 50 per cent of all trade and capital flows pass through places or sea lanes with high military tensions, from the Baltic Sea to Taiwan.

That means there is widespread exposure to low-probability but severe events. 

During the 1990s and 2000s, inflation was low and converging across the world. In the past five years, US consumer prices have risen by a cumulative 25 per cent.

Patrick Foulis FT 24 April 2026

https://www.ft.com/content/c4669693-0c5b-4733-99f7-173f18cfa843

The writer is an FT contributing editor, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, and author of a forthcoming book on globalisation.

24 april

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/24-april-tett-carl-hamilton-camilla.html