14 april. Hormuz och Wall Street. Dollarkursen slår. Kackerlackor. China Shock 2.0
Twenty years ago the global economy was shaken by a first “China shock” as a wave of low-cost goods destroyed the business models of manufacturers in advanced economies, displacing millions of workers and feeding discontent that fuelled populist politicians including US President Donald Trump.
Now a second shock is under way — one that is even more threatening to China’s trading partners: an assault on high-end manufacturing.
Financial Times 14 April 2026
https://www.ft.com/content/7d51a630-a3de-4cc7-9f5f-0f3e7f0d305a?syn-25a6b1a6=1
What’s really shocking about the second China shock?
Perhaps a shock is scarier if it’s concentrated in a few products, destroying, say, a car industry. On this dimension the second China shock looks slightly more intense than the first.
The clearer difference is in the nature of the products China is sending. Feeling much more threatened by competition in higher-tech products like cars and chips.
Another deviation from the first China shock playbook lies in what China is buying — or rather, what it is not buying.
China’s import volumes rose relatively healthily, as it sucked up the sophisticated equipment it needed to make its manufacturing exports boom.
Soumaya Keynes Financial Times 16 April 2026
https://www.ft.com/content/4687462f-dc46-4d39-a6a7-b74e5810a03a?syn-25a6b1a6=1
US, Iran Pursue New Talks - Pause in Hormuz Shipments
The US and Iran are considering a second round of peace negotiations, with Tehran possibly pausing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to ease tensions.
The US has implemented a naval blockade of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports, but Iran may hold off testing the blockade in the short term to help facilitate further talks.
Negotiating teams may return to Pakistan, or possibly meet in Geneva, as the two sides aim to reach an agreement before a truce announced on April 7 expires next week.
“Trump is looking for an exit, the Iranians need an exit, and somehow, we’re going to find it.”
Uppgifter om att USA och Iran planerar nya fredssamtal lugnar börserna
– och i Stockholm går börsen mot en grön öppning. ”Marknaden fortsätter att se glaset som halvfullt”, säger Carl-Henrik Söderberg, sparekonom på Nordnet.
Donald Trump uppgav inför ett pressuppbåd att Iran kontaktat USA, och visa villighet att fortsätta förhandla.
DI 14 april 2026, 08:24
https://www.di.se/live/borsen-mot-gron-oppning-marknaden-ser-glaset-som-halvfullt/
Munter stängning på börsen – Saab motströms
Stockholmsbörsens uppgång tilltog på eftermiddagen med verkstad och banker som draglok. Saab vände ned efter uppgifter om missad Gripenaffär från Peru.
https://www.di.se/live/munter-stangning-pa-borsen-saab-motstroms/
Stock traders’ ‘WTF indicator’.
WTF stands for ‘what the fudge’, of course.
Many investing professionals probably expected the S&P 500 would fall on Monday. Instead, the index rose 1%, finishing at its highest level in almost six weeks.
The S&P 500 rose by 1%,for its highest close in almost six weeks, while the Nasdaq composite extended its winning streak to nine days.
“This indicator triggers when every person I am talking to is asking ‘What the fudge?’ about a move. This is happening this morning in stocks.
Trump’s decision to blockade the strait might actually prove to be a winning strategy, Conger said. That’s because it will put pressure on China, which buys much of the crude oil exported by Iran.
“That would be the logical explanation for the market today; Trump is looking for an exit, the Iranians need an exit, and somehow, we’re going to find it.”
Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch April 13, 2026
The new blockade of Hormuz didn’t stop a strong day for the US stock market.
Stocks are now higher than they were when war broke out.
That the US stock market not only avoided falls but put together a good rally Monday is hugely significant.
The S&P 500 rose by more than 1%. After a month in which stocks took their every lead from the oil price, it’s as though the tyranny has lifted.
Crude prices have drifted upward since last Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement. Equities have carried on climbing with scarcely a rethink.
Resilience in the US suggests a strong appetite to carry on with the bull market.
John Authers Bloomberg April 14, 2026
A US-sanctioned tanker linked to China is making its way through the Strait of Hormuz, testing President Donald Trump’s naval blockade.
Trump’s threats and the start of the blockade have sparked alarm among Asian nations that rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy and fuel exports.
Bloomberg April 14, 2026
Blytung smäll lurar i rapportsäsongen som närmar sig.
Förväntningarna är högt ställda och siffrorna väntas över lag vara starka. Men i kulisserna lurar en faktor som hamnat i skymundan:
Den starkare kronan.
Valutaeffekterna kommer att slå hårdare mot börsjättarna än på mycket länge.
Den genomsnittliga växelkursen under det första kvartalet och ställer den mot motsvarande period föregående år. Den kronförstärkning vi ser nu är den kraftigaste under hela denna cykel.
Analytikerna fokuserar hellre på den organiska tillväxten och hur kärnverksamheten presterar rensat för brus.
Men i slutänden går det inte att trolla bort verkligheten.
Robert Andersson DI 14 april 2026
https://www.di.se/analys/blytung-small-lurar-i-rapporterna/
Profilerade amerikanska bankdirektörer talar om kackerlackor i det finansiella systemet.
Man syftar på de bolag som har gått i konkurs trots att de har fått lån från stora privata kreditfonder.
Samtidigt spottar Financial Times, och annan engelskspråkig affärspress, ur sig artiklar om hur pressad marknaden är för den här typen av lånefonder.
Christer Gardell – Man ska alltid bli orolig när man ser skenande kreditvolymer utanför banksystemet. Speciellt när utgivaren (privata kreditfonderna, reds anm) har incitament att växa volymerna så fort som möjligt.
– Det brukar alltid sluta i tårar, skriver han i en kommentar till SvD.
– Det verkar vara så att en hel del banker, framförallt amerikanska, har exponering genom lån mot en hel del av dessa fonder.
Det är tydligt att de tunga myndigheterna på finansmarknaden har fått upp ögonen för problemet. Både FI och Riksgälden har slagit på strålkastarna.
– Vi har just inlett en första analys av den här marknaden i Sverige, säger Vidar Lindgren, presschef på Finansinspektionen.
SvD 12 april 2026
https://www.svd.se/a/43Oz8q/flera-pensionsjattar-har-hog-exponering-mot-private-credit
Ingen nyhet för läsare av denna blogg.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/nonbanks
Dagen innan.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/13-april-strategerna-talar.html
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