Iran and China do control “chokepoints”
China produces 94% of rare earth magnets, and 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chokepoints work fundamentally differently from tariffs, and that distinction exposes the flaws in Trump’s entire approach to economic warfare.
This is what I learned from Edward Fishman, who worked on sanctions policy in the Obama administration and literally wrote the book on this subject:
“Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.”
https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/chokepoints-review-the-dollar-on-defense-08a6c083
Trump assumes other countries will do almost anything to avoid losing access to the enormous American market. But Fishman says the U.S. share of world imports, at 13%, is too small to sway other countries’ behavior. With a few exceptions, most can find substitute markets.
China’s exports to the U.S. fell last year because of tariffs, but exports to the rest of the world more than made up the difference.
The Pentagon has known for decades Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, yet seemed unprepared when it did.
Even so, Iran’s ability to extract a cease-fire by closing the strait is surprising.
Greg Ip WSJ April 12, 2026
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/kryptonite-to-americas-economic-super-powers-chokepoints-351ee72c
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