AI are occurring is unlike anything we’ve seen before; 20 per cent of the time things really are different

In the past, infrastructure was built for a new technology and it often took years for that infrastructure to be fully employed. 

It’s unlikely that today’s prices for enormously profitable companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google are going to turn out to have been ruinously excessive. 

On the other hand, the start-ups to which multi-billion-dollar valuations are being assigned — some of which have yet to describe their strategies or announce products — can only be viewed as lottery tickets. 

Most people who participate in lotteries end up with worthless tickets, but the few winners get very rich.

Howard Marks Financial Times 26 February 2026

https://www.ft.com/content/599fb2c0-67fa-4d43-9efb-0da3c63dc660

The writer is co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management and author of ‘Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side’

I have lived through several bubbles and read about others. One might think the losses experienced when past bubbles popped would discourage the next one from forming. But that has not happened yet, and I am sure it never will. 

“this time it’s different”.

On the other hand, Sir John Templeton, who first drew my attention to those four words, was quick to point out that 20 per cent of the time things really are different.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/ai-this-time-its-different.html