The scramble to adjust to a reality where the US can’t cut


John Authers 11 april 2024

The annualized three-month measure of core inflation is now 4.5% 

The continuation of favorable US disinflation required that price increases in the services sector moderate at a significantly faster rate before the outright price declines that we’ve seen in goods reversed course. 

This is not happening. 

Fed “would first push out expectations on the timing of the journey to 2% and then, well down the road, transition to an inflation target based on a range, say 2-3%.”

Mohamed A. El-Erian Bloomberg 10 april 2024

The Fed’s inflation fight will push the 10-year Treasury yield to 5%

Peter Morici MarketWatch 9 September 2023


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