Yield-Curve Pioneer Campbell Harvey Says This Recession Warning Is Real

 In 1986, he published his findings in his doctoral dissertation at the University of Chicago. At that point, an inverted yield curve had preceded four of four recessions dating to the late 1960s, Harvey said.

On Monday, 10-year Treasurys were yielding 3.715%, with three-month Treasury yields at 5.253%. The yield curve has been inverted for about seven months.

After Harvey’s dissertation, the yield curve inverted in 1989, 1999, 2006 and 2019 ahead of recessions. 

Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to cutting inflation down to its 2% goal. “Failure to get inflation down would not only prolong the pain but also increase, ultimately, the social costs of getting back price stability, causing even greater harm for families and businesses,” he said.

WSJ 23 May 2023


 “The Goldilocks scenario is that the Fed slows the economy enough to reduce inflation from the current 8.6%, 40 year-high level without tipping us into recession,” 



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