Dagen innan
Muntert i USA. Wall Street stänger tydligt upp.
Nasdaq yfte 0,6 procent, S&P 500 0,5 procent och Dow Jones 1,1 procent. Disney rasade 7,3 procent. Nvidia backade 2,9
U.S. stock futures fall after bitcoin’s weekend drop, as gold and silver’s sell-off may be bleeding into other markets.
“Given the build up of positioning and leverage involved, [Friday’s gold and silver] sell-off is bleeding into other markets,” “Effectively, a deleveraging is happening, forcing traders to sell other assets to cover losses on their losing precious metals positions. That’s contributing to the sell-off in stocks and probably contributed to bitcoin’s plunge over the weekend.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-fall-along-with-bitcoin-and-oil-prices-21adfaf3
Monday’s price actions point to mounting instability after a prolonged rally in precious metals and successive record highs in equities, driven by billions in AI investment.
At the same time, investors are reassessing valuations and recalibrating expectations for monetary policy under President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair amid repeated calls by Trump to lower rates.
With the pick of Warsh — an economist known as much for his fierce criticism of the central bank as his views on monetary policy — the debate has abruptly shifted from short-term rates to the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its very role in markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-02-02/markets-fallout
Warsh’s Return Revives Tensions Over the Fed’s $6.6 Trillion QE Hangover
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-01/warsh-s-return-revives-tensions-over-the-fed-s-6-6-trillion-qe-hangover
From QT to QE again
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/for-ekonomnordar-from-qt-to-qe-again.html
The four horsemen of the apocalypse are coming for Trump’s America
On one thing at least, Donald Trump is allowed to boast. The US economy is indeed going through something of a boom, and yes, his own policies – which combine extreme fiscal loosening with sweeping deregulation – are part of the explanation.
Barring a black swan event, this is likely to continue, at least until after the midterms in November. Trump will keep juicing the economy for as long as he thinks necessary to secure his position in Congress.
In no particular order, the four horsemen of the apocalypse take the form of partially interconnected bubbles in private credit and artificial intelligence, the explosive growth in sovereign debt, and the soaring price of gold, the latter of which is a symptom of financial and geopolitical uncertainty rather than a cause of it.
To these four might be added the “sell America” or “dollar debasement” trade, but that’s a story for another day.
For now, private credit is generally considered not large enough to be systemically important. I wouldn’t be so sure. Much the same thing was said of Collateralised Debt Obligations in the early Noughties, only for them to eventually blow up the entire system.
For more evidence of a bubble, just take a look at Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab
which has come from nothing in six months to command a valuation of $10bn. Maybe I’m too much of a dinosaur to properly understand the magical qualities of her product, but to me it looks like pure snake oil.
GSIBs; Globally systemically important banks
One of Wall Street’s least known but most important debt machines: collateralised loan obligations. The close cousin of collateralised debt obligations that became notorious during the subprime mortgage meltdown over a decade ago.
Ökning av genomsnittliga amerikanska tullar gentemot EU sedan det amerikanska valet: 13 %. Appreciering av euron gentemot dollarn: 13 % . ( Tullar påverkar EU:s export, men appreciering påverkar både EU:s export och EU:s import.
Olivier Blanchard på X
Some economists think 4% would give the Fed more room to get out of downturns. This “zero lower bound” problem meant that the Fed would need to turn to less potent ways to stimulate the economy, such as asset purchases.
Olivier Blanchard, then the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, in 2010 suggested a 4% target would do the trick.
Gold and silver’s $7 trillion wipeout delivers a painful lesson about risk
If ‘safe’ investments like gold and silver can crash in a single day, investors need to reconsider their portfolio hedges.
MarketWatch Feb. 1, 2026
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-and-silvers-7-trillion-wipeout-delivers-a-painful-lesson-about-risk-22dbf70f
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