Englund

    Back  -  Next  -  Book Home  -  Climate Change I nflationstakten i Eurozonen föll till 2,9 procent i oktober    Det var lägre än förväntat, ekonomer hade i snitt räknat med 3,1 procent. I september låg prisökningstakten på 4,3 procent på årsbasis. Dessutom backar BNP oväntat under tredje kvartalet till minus 0,1 procent jämfört föregående kvartal. Inflationen faller mer än väntat i euroländerna | SvD https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/euro-zone-inflation-sinks-to-two-year-low-as-economy-contracts raises the question if policymakers have hiked interest rates to  what they deem a “sufficiently restrictive” level US Credit Remains Strong With Risk Premiums Tight Despite Fed’s Policy Stance - Bloomberg Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metros rose for the sixth month in a row, as the housing market continues to deal with a shortage of homes for sale. U.S. home prices rose for the sixth month in a row, Case-Shiller s...

  Englund: QT (englundmacro.blogspot.com)   2023-09-18 Odds of the Fed reducing inflation without a recession have improved, but... Englund: Odds of the Fed reducing inflation without a recession have improved, but... (englundmacro.blogspot.com) The  worst selloff  of longer-term Treasuries in more than four decades is putting a spotlight on the market’s biggest missing buyer: the  Federal Reserve . Bond Market’s ‘Vicious Cycle’ Risk Puts Spotlight on Fed’s QT - Bloomberg Englund: QT (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

Jacques de Larosière: Unless new policies are forthcoming, a new euro crisis could erupt sooner or later. The single currency of the EU, the euro...  Rather than demonstrating unity, it is a continuing source of tension and dispute among the eurozone’s constituents. Target-2 imbalances that represent the national central banks’ intra-euro area claims and liabilities.  The revision of the stability and growth pact must be ambitious and immediately effective to prevent an imminent euro crisis.  Jacques de Larosière Financial Times 30 October 2023 The writer The writer is a former managing director of the IMF, former governor of the Banque de France and former president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECB’s €500 Billion TLTRO repayments and Italian Banks Englund: Jacques de Larosière: Unless new policies are forthcoming, a new euro crisis could erupt sooner or later. (englundmacro.blogspot.com)   Back  -  Next  -  Book Home ...

A sovereign currency represents the quintessence of the issuing country: the collective characteristics of the nation. The single currency of the EU, the euro, is far removed from this status.  Rather than demonstrating unity, it is a continuing source of tension and dispute among the eurozone’s constituents. Macroeconomic divergence is further demonstrated by the so-called Target-2 imbalances that represent the national central banks’ intra-euro area claims and liabilities.  Spain and Italy register liabilities of around 28 per cent of gross domestic product, while Germany has a net claim of about 26 per cent.  Another basic problem has been ultra-accommodative ECB monetary policies. The revision of the stability and growth pact must be ambitious and immediately effective to prevent an imminent euro crisis.  Jacques de Larosière Financial Times 30 October 2023 https://www.ft.com/content/12e09916-67bc-4f9b-8202-3435dfb0f19b The writer The writer is a former managing ...

Många, däribland jag själv, har starkt kritiserat världens centralbanker och i Sverige Stefan Ingves. Ett välformulerat exempel finns här: - Ett första steg från Riksbankens ledning vore att klart erkänna att det expansiva penningpolitiska experimentet med ultralåg styrränta var ett stort misstag, skrev Fredrik NG Andersson och Lars Jonung i DI 5 september 2023. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/09/den-svaga-kronan-beror-pa-riksbanken.html Båda är ekonomer som med rätta har högt anseende. Till mitt försvar vill jag anföra att jag inte hakat på ett befintligt drev. Mitt första inlägg om detta gjordes redan 2009. - Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Rolf Englund blogg 5 december   2009 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/08/skriande-uppenbart.html Jag har länge varit mycket självbelåten över detta inlägg.  Men, men, men ... som vi alla vet, och vad som framgår av ne...

  Drevet går mot Stefan Ingves Många, däribland jag själv, har starkt kritiserat världens centralbanker och i Sverige Stefan Ingves. Ett välformulerat exempel finns här: - Ett första steg från Riksbankens ledning vore att klart erkänna att det expansiva penningpolitiska experimentet med ultralåg styrränta var ett stort misstag, skrev Fredrik NG Andersson och Lars Jonung i DI 5 september 2023. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/09/den-svaga-kronan-beror-pa-riksbanken.html Båda är ekonomer som med rätta har högt anseende. Jag har länge varit mycket självbelåten över mina inlägg.  Men, men, men ... som vi alla vet var Stefan Ingves bara en av många centralbankschefer som under lång tid har gjort detta påstådda misstag. Den fråga man då inte kommer undan, även om man skulle vilja - trevligare är ju att instämma i drevets uppfattning - är om de "skyldiga" varit inkompetenta. Det skulle vara mycket allvarligt. Än allvarligare vore det dock om centralbankerna handlat rätt och at...

 How did the wheel turn so quickly from the “Roaring Nineties” to populist authoritarianism, “democratic erosion,” and the broader crisis of trust in the 2020s? In 1998, US President Bill Clinton was certainly among the most powerful people in the world.  Notwithstanding the Monica Lewinsky scandal, America’s “New Economy” was roaring, and Clinton was still polling well after his smashing re-election victory in 1996.  Clinton “found no takers for any version of an international New Deal,” write historians Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein in A Fabulous Failure: The Clinton Presidency and the Transformation of American Capitalism.  But who was really calling the shots? Was it Rubin, the former Goldman Sachs financier, and Summers, the former Harvard University economist? Or was everyone simply being carried along by the Zeitgeist?  Harvard historian Charles S. Maier’s The Project-State and Its Rivals: A New History of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries s...

  Back  -  Next  -  Book Home  -  Climate Change Under veckan Dow Jones minus 2 procent,  S&P 500-index föll 2,6 och Nasdaqs sjönk 2,8 procent. https://www.di.se/nyheter/experter-ser-ljus-i-borsmorkret-finns-bra-chanser/ American-led globalization was on the march, as was representative democracy. Den amerikanska PCE-inflationen, som brukar beskrivas som Federal Reserves favoritinflationsmått, steg med 0,4 procent i september i linje med augusti-siffran.  The optimistic view points to a small decline in the annual rate of core inflation to a more than two-year low of 3.7% from 3.8% in the prior month. Good news, to be sure, but the rate of inflation is still far away from the Fed's 2% target. Not only that, but the 0.4% increase in headline PCE and 0.3% in the core rate (which omits food and energy) won't let the Fed achieve its goal. Monthly headline and core inflation increases need to slow to 0.1% or 0.2% a month to get there. Förväntn...