Ray Dalio apparently stands on the shoulders of nobody
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates and a long-time observer of China, says there’s a formula for President Donald Trump to be successful in a trade negotiation with China.
“There are better and worse ways of handling our problems with unsustainable debt and imbalances, and President Trump’s decision to step back from a worse way and negotiate how to deal with these imbalances is a much better way,”
A deal should be reached that would appreciate the Chinese renminbi vs. the dollar. This would be achieved by China selling dollar assets while easing their fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand.
“This would be a win-win. The Chinese should then restructure and monetize their excessive local government debts to get their debt overhang behind them,”
MarketWatch 10 April 2025
Dalio Sees Once-a-Lifetime Collapse in Economic, Political Order
Among the drivers of Trump’s tariff policies are too much existing debt and the rapid rate at which new borrowing is added, Dalio wrote.
He said the US is hooked on using debt to finance excessive spending, while creditor countries like China are addicted to selling goods to borrower countries like the US.
“There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways,”
Ray Dalio’s “Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises” is the work of a self-taught economist and self-made billionaire. The first 70 pages of the book, in which the founder of Bridgewater Associates introduces his theory of debt cycles, have no citations. He apparently stands on the shoulders of nobody.
Mr. Dalio’s education came on trading floors, not in classrooms.
“There is nothing,” he writes, “like the pain of being wrong or the pleasure of being right as a global macro investor to provide the practical lessons about economics that are unavailable in textbooks.”
Daniel Rasmussen WSJ 5 January 2023
Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises – December 2022
https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Navigating-Big-Debt-Crises/dp/1668009293
Ray Dalio Wall Street stocks will take a 20% hit
The market is severely underestimating where inflation will end up — at 2.6% over the next 10 years versus what he sees as 4.5% to 5% in the medium term, barring shocks.
MarketWatch 15 September 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/ray-dalio-wall-street-stocks-will-take.html
Ray Dalio on Youtube and text
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/ray-dalio-on-youtube-and-text.html
Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 9 april 2025
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-9-april-2025-china-more.html
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