For the first couple of weeks of 2023, financial markets were partying as if New Year’s Eve had never ended.

At the beginning of 2023, the market swarm collectively decided that the Fed was bound to retreat from raising rates later this year. 

Just like that, the biggest losers of 2021 took off. 

Senior Fed officials have said repeatedly they expect to raise the fed-funds rate: around 5%, or more like 6%?”. That’s the interest rate—around 4.3% this week

Remember that although interest rates have risen sharply, they’re still moderate by historical standards—and still will be unless the Fed hikes rates far higher than anyone expects. 

Jason Zweig WSJ  20 January 2023


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