“There are known unknowns,” former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld; S&P 500 near record high
My blogg short index
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/my-blogg-short-index.html
2002 press briefing in the lead-up to the Iraq War.
“But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know,” he continued.
“It is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”
Donald Rumsfeld Quotes
https://www.azquotes.com/author/12769-Donald_Rumsfeld
The same could now be said about the Trump administration’s trade war. You wouldn’t know it by the looks of the US stock market.
The S&P 500 Index is hovering near record highs. And the index’s forward price-earnings ratio is back to its Feb. 19 peak.
By all outward appearances, the market no longer seems to care about a trade war. Earnings forecasts are even higher than they were before tariffs.
All of that says to me that while earnings estimates are up, analysts’ confidence in them is waning. After all, the stock market is only as stable as the earnings forecasts it stands on.
Nir Kaissar Bloomberg 11 July 2025
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-11/welcome-to-your-conviction-light-stock-rally
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