Markets Are Way Out of Line With Reality
Three popular stock market valuation tools are saying the rebound of the past couple of weeks is a fools’ rally.
Unfortunately, long-term investing isn’t so easy.
Most fund managers underperform, so what chance do individuals dabbling in the markets have? Better to buy the index.
However, even the longest-term thinkers should adjust their portfolios when prices are way out of line with reality
The question is how to judge.
I’ll consider three gauges here, the CAPE, the forward PE and the Fed Model. All show that the offers being presented by Mr. Market are unattractive for large U.S. stocks at present.
They are expensive not only compared with the past but compared with smaller stocks, foreign stocks, corporate bonds and Treasurys, too.
If these measures are right, the rebound of the past couple of weeks is a fools’ rally, and it’s time to switch away from the biggest stocks.
For CAPE to get back to its long-run average, there would have to be the mother of all crashes.
A more likely explanation for CAPE’s levels: stocks have moved to higher valuations over the past century
The standard criticism of forward PE ratios is that they rely on analysts, mostly at big banks:
Anything based on the Wall Street consensus should be treated with skepticism by long-term investors. I agree.
James Mackintosh Wall Street Journal 16 August 2024
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