Börsen i Stockholm och New York 6 augusti 2024 - Market crashes usually have the same mechanism

 

Nasdaq 5 dagar
 





US, Allies in Frantic Push to Avert Possible Middle East War

Tehran says it must restore deterrence but avoid a wider war

Israel activates a command bunker under Jerusalem’s hills




Japan’s Nikkei rallies a day after its plunge triggered global selloff

MarketWatch 6 August 2024



Stockholmsbörsen studsar upp efter de senaste dagarnas tunga nedgångar. 

Samtliga bolag i storbolagsindex OMXS30 utom Astra Zeneca och Essity handlas på plus.

DI 6 augusti 2024






De största premiepensionsfonderna föll med uppemot 12 procent, ett ras som raderade ut värden för närmare 53 miljarder kronor.

Hans Bolander DI 6 augusti 2024, 17:13




Market crashes usually have the same mechanism -
 Unwinding of carry trades is helping - Margin Call 






A Recession Wouldn’t Be So Bad This Time



Is anyone too big to fail on the brink?

Much will come down to whether appetite exists for a Fed Put. 

The S&P 500 actually ended higher for the week that started with Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008, so initial moves can be deceptive. 

At the time of writing, however, the Nikkei 225 is up more than 8% for the Tokyo morning after its savage selloff. 

During Monday trading, the share price of Nvidia Corp., once valued at more than $3 trillion, dropped 15.5% at the open, then rallied 14%. It’s still down 26% from its peak in June, yet more than double its price at the beginning of the year.

The cyclically adjusted price/earnings multiple for the S&P 500 is still at about 33. 

That’s higher than it’s been for all but about three years of the entire history of the metric, which has been calculated back to 1880. 

It’s more than at the peak before the Great Crash of 1929.

If this correction must continue until the stock market looks compellingly cheap, we’ll have to wait a long time.

John Authers Bloomberg 6 augusti 2024 at 07:10 CEST




The average Shiller CAPE price-to-earnings ratio was 13.5 in the 1970s, and climbed to over 30 by the early 2020s. 



Financcial Conditions


"Policy may not be as restrictive as perceived"





1929 202? 

The trend is your friend. And then the trend is not your friend.

Englund blogg 21 juli 2024

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/1929-202-trend-is-your-friend-and-then.html


About me

Englund (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

My website

Internetional Communications Rolf Englund Home Page



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