A Recession Wouldn’t Be So Bad This Time
The economy is in much better condition now than it was a decade and a half ago, so a downturn is less scary.
To be clear, a recession is never good. People lose their jobs, companies go out of business, assets fall in value, uncertainty spreads.
But some recessions are worse than others. The 2001 recession was fairly mild and short, with the unemployment rate peaking at 6.2%.
In 2008, it rose to 10%, while households saw much of their wealth destroyed and the recovery dragged on for nearly a decade.
Allison Schrager Bloomberg 6 augusti 2024 at 11:30 CEST
Periods of extraordinary innovation are inherently unpredictable.
No one really knows how exactly AI will transform the economy, and while it could justify the market’s positive growth outlook, there will be a lot of creative destruction along the way.
Allison Schrager Bloomberg 13 June 2024
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-last-15-years-have-been-magical.html
Allison Schrager senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”
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