Nasdaq 1 dag och fem dagar
Platt fall på Wall Street
Wall Street vände ned på onsdagskvällen efter en stark start.
Samtidigt steg marknadsräntorna.
https://www.di.se/live/platt-fall-pa-wall-street-stangde-klart-pa-minus/
Lower for longer - Japan
Kronan och Carry Trade - SEB har en förklaring
”Ett av de stora temana på marknaden just nu är att så kallade 'carry trading'-strategier – finansiera med en lågräntevaluta och placera i en högräntevaluta – klappar ihop och avvecklas”, skriver SEB och fortsätter:
”Volatiliteten, räntehöjningen i Japan och förväntade sänkningar i USA finns bland anledningarna till att dessa spekulativa strategier inte längre fungerar som tidigare, och när investerare nu stänger sina positioner behöver de köpa tillbaka finansieringsvalutor (till exempel JPY, SEK) och sälja placeringsvalutor (till exempel USD, NOK).”
Martin Lindgren DI 7 augusti 2024, 08:24
https://www.di.se/nyheter/seb-da-gar-luften-ur-kronan/
Market crashes usually have the same mechanism - Unwinding of carry trades is helping
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/market-crashes-usually-have-same.html
Is it over yet? Probably not.
Carry trades are great, until they’re not.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/carry-trade-usual-suspect.html
Bank of Japan Walks Back Talk of Rate Increases After Roiling Markets
Nikkei surges as deputy governor says central bank won’t tighten when markets are unstable
Wall Street Journal 7 August 2024
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/boj-wont-raise-rates-when-markets-are-unstable-deputy-gov-says-6f4bf962
Lower for longer - Japan
Marknaden killgissar om börsfallet och uppgången därefter
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/marknaden-killgissar-om-borsfallet-och.html
Rally Wanes on Weak $42 Billion US Bond Sale
“Terrible 10-year auction,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report. “One would have thought that the 10-year note auction today would do just fine with that backdrop but no, the auction was terrible.”
At Nationwide, Mark Hackett says the latest events have been a “masterclass” in how emotions can dominate the movement in markets, particularly when sentiment and positioning are nearly universally positive.
Beyond One Bounce
The selloff’s damage to the tectonic plates of global finance won’t be clear for weeks.
Tuesday’s bounce almost certainly DOESN’T mean the turbulence is over.
The lows and long-term uptrends have to be tested before that can happen.
AND some thoughts of Enola Gay on the 79th anniversary of its flight over Hiroshima.
The market vocabulary for events like we’ve just witnessed is a tad distasteful. When prices rebound after a big fall, it’s referred to as a “dead cat bounce” because even a dead cat will rebound if you drop it far enough.
Let’s instead look at an oceanographic metaphor to try to understand what’s happening; specifically, the science of tsunamis.
A tsunami results from an undersea earthquake that displaces great amounts of water, which must then go somewhere before settling again.
The tectonic plates of international finance have been shaken in the last month, as a sharp change of sentiment toward the US economy and a reversal in the Japanese carry trade combined with a run to the exit from big US tech stocks, which had become blatantly overcrowded.
That will not cause one wave, but a series of them with brief intervals of deceptive calm.
This has been written on the 79th anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. It’s hard for any of us to grasp the enormity of the event, with last year’s movie Oppenheimer one of the big recent attempts to help do so.
John Authers Bloomberg 7 augusti 2024 at 08:04 CEST
How short-sighted computers fuelled the stock market crash
Traders forced to watch from their sun loungers as algorithms deepened a global sell-off
Telegraph 6 August 2024
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/06/market-plunged-into-summer-of-madness-top-traders-hit-beach/
What, then, should the Fed do? It needs to get to neutral.
Federal Open Market Committee members’ estimates of the neutral interest rate range between 2.4% and 3.8% (I’d put myself in the top half of that range).
This means there’s a long way to go from the current effective fed funds rate of 5.3%.
And if a recession materializes, the Fed will need to go into accommodative territory — to 3% or less.
Bill Dudley Bloomberg 7 augusti 2024 at 06:30 CEST
I Changed My Mind: The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now
Bill Dudley Bloomberg 24 juli 2024
Den neutrala räntan är möjligen högre än man tidigare har trott vilket skulle vara orsaken till att tillväxten har varit så stark de senaste åren.
Was the stock market’s 3% selloff Monday a ‘black swan’ event? Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb says no.
In fact, the ‘Black Swan’ author says the absence of such a drop would be the bigger surprise
MarketWatch 6 August 2024
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/was-the-stock-markets-3-selloff-monday-a-black-swan-event-author-nassim-nicholas-taleb-says-no-c7c91fac
Är det en svart svan, eller en vit?
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/ar-borsen-dod.html
Kraftig uppgång på börsen – fastighetssektorn draglok
https://www.di.se/live/kraftig-uppgang-pa-borsen-fastighetssektorn-draglok/
Kraftig uppgång på börsen – fastighetssektorn draglok
Ja, här behövs det verkligen en dubbelsänka
Dags för Thedéen att dubbelsänka räntan
DI Ledare Henrik Westman 6 augusti 2024
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/dags-for-thedeen-att-dubbelsanka-rantan.html
Amanda Sundström, ränte- och valutastrateg på SEB, studerar olika räntor som indikerar hur marknadens aktörer tror att Riksbanken kommer att agera på sitt nästa möte den 20 augusti, och framåt.
– Marknaden är tvärsäker. Riksbanken kommer att sänka räntan med minst 0,25 procentenheter i augusti, säger hon.
Marknadsräntorna tror på att Riksbanken sänker sin reporänta med 0,25 procentenheter på alla sina fyra möten under hösten, alltså med 1 procentenhet totalt.
Tidigare låg förväntningarna på tre sänkningar, 0,75 procent.
SvD 7 Augusti 2024
Börsturbulensen – bingo för svenska bolånetagare | SvD
”Skräckindexet” oroar sparare – ekonomen förklarar
https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/skrackindexet-oroar-sparare-ekonomen-forklarar/
About me
Englund (englundmacro.blogspot.com)
My website
Internetional Communications Rolf Englund Home Page
Kommentarer