Hussman på X

 

The fact that one can hardly see last week's decline on this chart

 says a great deal about full-cycle risk.

Latest market comment (July 21) here:

https://x.com/hussmanjp/status/1819751709494677610

Hussman July 2024

There is no question that investors increasingly disregard valuations during speculative episodes, to the point where valuations are typically dismissed altogether by the peak of a bubble, in preference for passive, price-insensitive speculation (one dare not call it “investing.”) 

The unfortunate consequence is that market participants come to completely forget the arithmetic that links valuations, cash flows, and actual subsequent returns.

I can’t emphasize enough that stocks are not claims to next year’s earnings. 

They are claims to a very, very long-term stream of future cash flows that must be delivered to investors over time. A good valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper discounted cash flow analysis. 

That’s why good valuation multiples produce these beautiful log-linear scatters when they are plotted against actual subsequent market returns, particularly on horizons of about 10-12 years.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240721/

– Jag utesluter inte att det här är början på något större och mer dystert, en nedgång på kanske 20–25 procent, säger Peter Malmqvist.

https://www.svd.se/a/Rzjdgx/risk-for-borsfall-i-stockholm-pa-over-10-procent-de-kommande-dagarna

What Triggered the Crash? - Hussman

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/what-triggered-crash-hussman-funds.html