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  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3ejw1kd7ndo https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/29/politics/takeaways-harris-walz-interview/index.html https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/vem-ar-kamala-harris-y38dov https://www.svd.se/a/W0mg22/valjargruppen-kvinnor-kan-ta-harris-till-vita-huset Blogg visiters

  Stark börsdag i USA  https://www.di.se/live/stark-borsdag-i-usa-intel-rusade-pa-uppdelningsplaner/ Börsen på plus – raset från månadsskiftet nästan uppätet https://www.di.se/live/borsen-pa-plus-raset-fran-manadsskiftet-nastan-uppatet/ Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/wall-street-och-stockholm-29-augusti.html

  Visitors at a viewpoint overlooking the city skyline in Stockholm. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg “The downturn in the economy was wide but offset by the foreign trade in goods, where exports increased and imports decreased,” Jessica Engdahl, head of National Accounts at Statistics Sweden, said in a statement. Niclas Rolander Bloomberg 29 augusti 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/swedish-economy-contracts-less-than-expected-helped-by-exports EU to Move Forward With Russian Asset Plan Regardless of US “We will do whatever we can to support Ukraine, regardless of decisions in Washington,” Josep Borrell told reporter Borrell also said that he is looking for a way to “circumvent” Hungary’s opposition to unlocking another €6 billion ($6.7 billion) in aid to Ukraine, which was discussed previously by member states. Bloomberg 29 augusti 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/eu-to-move-forward-with-russian-asset-plan-regardless-of-us Fallet ti

A team of economists at the Bank of International Settlements took a close look at what caused the Aug. 5 market rout.  They found that nothing has really changed. They found that despite the chaos, markets held up remarkably well. But investors might not be so lucky next time — and there almost certainly will be a next time.  As volatility recedes, traders have wasted no time rushing back into some of the same leveraged bets that contributed to the initial selloff, the BIS team said.  At the end of the day, nothing has really changed. While the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade initially received much of the blame — and rightly so — for driving the selloff, it wasn’t the only crowded strategy affected by the sudden wave of deleveraging that rocked markets. Stretched bets on stocks and options were also impacted. They all had one thing in common: Traders had increasingly deployed more leverage to chase the momentum, egged on by a prolonged stretch of low volatility.  The first blo

  Why Libya Has Two Governments Competing Over Control of Oil More than a decade after the US, European and Arab governments helped Libyans overthrow their tyrannical ruler Moammar Al Qaddafi, a lasting peace remains elusive.  Libya sits atop Africa’s largest proven oil reserves   The International Crisis Group writes about recent developments in the country. Bloomberg 27 August 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-27/libya-why-it-has-two-governments-fighting-to-control-oil-policy International Crisis Group/The /United States The International Crisis Group operates non-profit organization. The Organization focuses on preventing and resolving world conflict. The International Crisis Group serves communities worldwide. Board Members Nils Daniel Carl Bildt Fastator AB Gen Rt Wesley Kanne Clark Sr Wesley K Clark & Assocs Wesley Kanne Clark, Sr., född 23 december 1944 i Chicago i Illinois, är en amerikansk pensionerad fyrstjärnig general som var Natos SACEUR samt militär

  Efter att till en början ha handlats ner över 8 procent i efterhandeln  står aktien på minus 3 procent strax före 22.30. https://www.di.se/live/nvidia-slar-forvantningarna-aktien-backar-i-efterhandeln/ Next time may be different - BIS Aug. 5 market rout https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/next-time-may-be-different-bis-aug-5.html Sedan månadsskiftet har kronan stärkts med över 5 procent mot dollarn  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/sedan-manadsskiftet-har-kronan-starkts.html Libyen, Carl Bildt, The International Crisis Group och Fastator https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/libyen-carl-bildt-international-crisis.html Stockholmsbörsen handlades upp något på onsdagen,  med SBB och Saab som de främsta storbolagen. https://www.di.se/live/borsen-steg-svagt-h-m-tyngde-storbolagsindex/ USA-börserna handlades nedåt på onsdagskvällen,  i väntan på chiptillverkaren Nvidias delårsrapport som kommer efter handelsdagens slut. https://www.di.se/live/nedat-pa-usa-borserna-spand-

till 10,17 kronor på onsdagen. Därmed är kronan snubblande nära att återhämta hela det nesliga bakslaget sedan årsskiftet. Andra små valutakusiner som Nya Zeeland och Norge hör också till de främsta revanschtagarna mot USA. Men kronan bär alltså ledartröjan. Det innebär i sin tur att kronan stärkts överlag i augusti.  Närmare bestämt med drygt 3 procent, enligt det handelsvägda KIX-index  och nära 3 procent mot i särklass viktigaste motparten euron. Nils Åkesson DI 28 augusti 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kronans-formtopp-ger-thedeen-draghjalp/ In 1971, US Treasury Secretary John Connally famously told his counterparts  in the G10 that “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-dollar-is-everyones-problem.html

  Chipmaker is due to report results after the close Wednesday Nvidia has been responsible for over a third of the Nasdaq 100’s gain this year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-improves-in-august-46646573 En nyckelfaktor avgör hur det kommande börsåret blir https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/en-nyckelfaktor-avgor-hur-det-kommande.html The Fed should abandon the concept of a neutral real federal-funds rate.  Who makes an economic or financial decision based on a nominal overnight bank reserves lending rate less the yearly percent change in a measure of consumer prices? Yardeni  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-us-economy-is-too-strong-for-fed-to.html Högern kommer att dominera nästa kommission, men EPP:s ledamöter måste försöka lägga band på sin lust att styra och ställa.  Annika Ström Melin Annika Ström Melin har läst en bok av Jürgen Habermas. Hon förklar

 ... EPP:s ledamöter måste försöka lägga band på sin lust att styra och ställa.  Vad som än sägs i alla glättiga men felaktiga beskrivningar av den mäktiga EU-institutionen är kommissionen ingen europeisk regering, utan ett mycket speciellt överstatligt organ som ska främja hela Europas intressen. EPP, det kristdemokratiska och konservativa europeiska partiet där svenska Moderaterna och Kristdemokraterna ingår, kommer att få fler ledamöter i nästa kommission än någon gång tidigare.  Ytterhögern stärks också när Italiens och Tjeckiens regeringar nominerar kandidater som hör till ECR (samma partigrupp som SD)  Samtidigt försvagas vänstern och liberalerna. För närvarande har enbart fyra EU-länder socialdemokratiska regeringschefer: Danmark, Spanien, Malta och Tyskland. EU är en annorlunda union och egentligen en ganska skör konstruktion. Om högern frestas att använda den överstatliga makten för att driva partipolitik kan hela bygget rasa. Annika Ström Melin DN 25 augusti 2024 https://www.

  It’s the discount rate used in any stock price model, and it’s the benchmark for mortgages, corporate bonds and a whole host of other assets. So it’s noteworthy when a Treasury dealer actually recommends shorting, or betting against it.  That’s what the team at Deutsche Bank has done Steve Goldstein MarketWatch 27 August 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/maybe-the-u-s-economy-isnt-going-in-the-toilet-deutsche-bank-says-short-the-10-year-treasury-74c2fab0  

The federal-funds rate futures market shows cuts totaling 100 basis points, or 1%, to 4.25% by the end of this year.  The federal-funds rate is expected to be 3% by the end of 2025. The Fed should abandon the concept of a neutral real federal-funds rate. It’s a theoretical fantasy number.  Everyone agrees that it can’t be measured or even estimated because it surely isn’t a constant.  Besides, it’s a nonsensical construct: Who makes an economic or financial decision based on a nominal overnight bank reserves lending rate less the yearly percent change in a measure of consumer prices?  Only the Fed seems to do so. Ed Yardeni MarketWatch 27 August 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powells-jackson-hole-pivot-on-rate-cuts-wont-be-his-last-039ba6fb

  Ulf Petersson  DI 27 augusti 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/borsspoket-hotar-gora-hosten-skakig/ Frothy valuations for large-cap stocks could make markets vulnerable to an adverse reaction this time around, especially amid signs that the economy is slowing, which could threaten Wall Street’s lofty forecasts for corporate earnings growth, strategists said. If stocks continue to climb between Monday and the first cut, it could tee up what some on Wall Street call a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.  Such a reaction occurs when stocks climb ahead of an anticipated event, only to sell off once it has passed. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 27 August 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-can-slide-when-the-fed-cuts-rates-economic-data-also-matters-for-markets-e7946f95

Largely out of the news since the fall of Moammar Qaddafi in 2011, and the following year’s murderous attack on US facilities in Benghazi, Libya has settled into a glum existence as a failed state.  No government can claim that its writ runs throughout the country. As Libya is still an oil producer, maybe this should have prompted us all to pay attention, but it didn’t.  This chart compares mentions of Libya and Gaza in stories published on the Bloomberg terminal this decade: The weekend brought news of Israel’s preemptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and of retaliatory missile attacks. About 12 hours later, the eastern Libyan government that operates from Benghazi said that it was closing all oil production in areas under its control. That news seemed to blindside the market, and oil shot up: This has its roots in a dispute over Libya’s cental bank.  The internationally recognized government for western Libya (våra pojkar) wants to replace the governor, and this might make it

  provided US consumers with an extra $600 billion in spending cash since 2022, blunting the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes, according to analysis by the Swiss Re Institute. The effect has been to mute the impact of monetary policy transmission, as consumer demand proved resilient to Fed hikes.  The same mechanism will likely counteract the effectiveness of rate cuts that the Fed is now planning, and make it harder to stimulate consumer demand if the economy slows. The median home price has risen some 60% since early 2020 and credit card delinquencies are above pre-pandemic levels, pointing to larger household debt burdens that will only see limited relief from lower borrowing costs. Bloomberg 26 August 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/us-consumers-got-a-600-billion-boost-from-locked-in-mortgages Most US Mortgage Rates Were Locked in During Pandemic Lows   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/m-10-and-house-prices.html

  Early in his career Winston Churchill attacked what he called “the mother of all other forms of monopoly”: land. Profits from rising land values were not only “unearned”, Churchill warned in a 1909 speech, but “positively detrimental to the general public” because high land prices become a barrier to development. Churchill would go on to lead the traditional party of rural landowners – the Conservatives. But at the time he was in the ruling Liberal Party, whose chancellor, David Lloyd George, had proposed a land tax. However, instead of redistributing wealth across the country, the plan triggered a constitutional crisis and two general elections. Melissa Lawford Telegraph 26 August 2024 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/26/reeves-under-pressure-left-right-introduce-radical-land-tax/

  Stocks are almost as pricey as they were at the January 2022 bull-market top This does not mean that the stock market won’t keep going higher. But if it does, stocks will be trading in even more rarefied air than before the 2022 bear market. Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 26 August 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/any-way-you-look-at-it-the-stock-market-is-dangerously-overvalued-now-14165afc Valuations P/E Englund (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

  Nasdaq pressades av en svag tekniksektor på måndagen. AI-exponerade bolag ledde nedgången https://www.di.se/live/tekniksektorn-tyngde-nasdaq-ai-bolag-backade/ Stock Market Data - US Markets, World Markets, and Stock Quotes | CNN The stock market is dangerously overvalued now https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-stock-market-is-dangerously.html Mortgages locked in at low costs provided US consumers with an extra $600 billion in spending cash since 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/mortgages-locked-in-at-low-costs.html Daniel Hannan: The fall of Vladimir Putin is now only a matter of time https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/daniel-hannan-fall-of-vladimir-putin-is.html Hizbollah och Hamas Raketer är gömda i terrängen och ballistiska missiler är nedsänkta i underjordiska silos, belägna under bostäder i södra Libanons städer och byar. Enligt israeliska militärkällor planerade Hizbollah att skicka över tusen projektiler mot Israel denna gång. Men efter intensiv

Det var i mars i år som Anna Kinberg Batra ska ha beslutat att sparka Ryding, som efter en överenskommelse fick 2,2 miljoner kronor i fallskärm. Enligt Stefan Gollbo är det sannolikt endast regeringen som har rätt att säga upp eller anställa en länsöverdirektör. ”Vi kommer att titta på om landshövdingen i Stockholm har överträtt sina befogenheter” TT 26 augusti 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/riksrevisionen-granskar-anna-kinberg-batra/

  Boken måste ha varit en av 2000-talets mest hyllade: ”Världens lyckligaste folk” av journalisten Lena Sundström från 2009 (Leopard). Som DN skrev i en hyllning: ”Hur kunde Europas mest kulturradikala och ’hyggelige’ nation göra en helomvändning till att bli konservativt och slutet?” Sundströms skildring av Danmark belönades med några av den svenska offentlighetens mest prestigefyllda utmärkelser – Guldspaden, Publicistklubbens stora pris, en Augustnominering – och möttes av en kör av positiva recensioner och personporträtt i medierna. ”För här är den: den danska integrationsdebattens rasistiska galenskap i svart på vitt. Det är drastiskt, det är kul, det är skrämmande och det är helt nödvändig läsning”, kommenterade P1:s Kulturnytt i en recension. Jag har inte sett någon revidera vad de sade om den danska politiken då. Inte ett ord från dem som hyllade Sundströms och andras grova karikatyrer av den danska politiken och samhällsdebatten. Den brittiske journalisten och författaren Doug

  Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk will have been intended to bring forward the end of the dictator’s rule Russians and Ukrainians, who won the decisive battle of the Second World War at Kursk in 1943 – the largest armoured battle in history and, on most measures, the largest battle of any kind  The great temptation, in any war, is to fixate on front lines. It is a mistake.  When the Armistice took effect in November 1918, Germany still held most of Belgium, a sliver of France, and the greater part of Poland, Belarus and the Baltic States.  What determined the outcome of the First World War was not territory, but productive capacity.  The sequence was that Germany ran out of money, troops began to mutiny, the Kaiser was forced to abdicate, and the new government capitulated. Plenty of generals and oligarchs will see that Putin is isolating, disgracing and ruining their country in pursuit of what is little more than a personal obsession brought on by reading too much history during lockdo

  The market is betting on a hard-landing response to a soft landing; data might not confirm that. Free markets tend to go too far in both directions, and there’s nothing we can do about it.  Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are reaching the point where markets can’t keep ignoring them. John Authers 26 August 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-26/milton-friedman-s-monetary-shower-scene-is-back