Overshoots are the new normal

Stocks have surged this year without really anything going right, besides the rolling out of error-prone artificial intellligence chatbots. Interest rates have surged to a 22-year high, earnings are down from last year, and pandemic-era savings are being drawn down if not entirely exhausted.

Hartnett and team noted that real retail sales — that is, adjusted for inflation — fell at a 1.6% year-over-year clip, which has coincided with recessions since 1967. Real retail sales falls in excess of 3% are associated with hard recessions.

Steve Goldstein MarketWatch 28 July 2023 

Puzzled by the stock-market surge? Overshoots are the new normal, Bank of America strategist says - MarketWatch