Europe could be a superpower, by becoming a United States of Europe. But I don’t see that happening.
The European Union is often eulogized as history’s greatest peace project. What future, if any, does the greatest-ever peace project have in this harsh new era?
This is a question I’m asking myself as I move back to the US after 11 years of living in Berlin and covering Germany and the EU.
This fault line between east and west, long before Putin’s invasion of 2022, cleaved the EU one way, while a different rift, exposed by the euro crisis, was pulling apart its north and south.
The north (which included the UK until it exited the bloc) tends to be more market-oriented, economically strong, fiscally conservative, and culturally Protestant. The south leans more corporatist, spendthrift and culturally Catholic or Orthodox.
In some ways, the ancient Roman Limes still divides the continent.
The postwar West Germans viewed European integration as a way of re-entering Western civilization after their Nazi crimes. were not only willing but eager to cede sovereignty to “Europe.” (Whether they still are is another matter.)
The French, by contrast, saw “Europe” as a way of continuing to project Gallic national power via Brussels to the world, at a time when they were losing their empire and global status and economically falling behind Germany.
French President Emmanuel Macron talks about European “autonomy” but really means French-led independence from the US.
One question is whether Europe should try to return to its professed path of “ever closer union,” by ceding more powers from the capitals to the center.
Members including Germany want almost all decisions to be made by “qualified majority” as opposed to unanimity, so that no country — Hungary, for example — can block policies on Russia, China or whatever.
Other nations, including Poland, object, fearing that without veto power they’ll be dominated by the large countries, above all Germany.
A second and related controversy is about enlargement. The EU has grown from six founding members in the 1950s to 27 today.
Without a drastic rewrite of its treaties (including that change to qualified majority voting), how could it avoid breaking down in dysfunction?
In theory, Europe could be a superpower, by becoming a United States of Europe. But I don’t see that happening. The EU will instead remain a confederation masquerading as a federation, and possibly revert to being a mere trade area.
Andreas Kluth Bloomberg 9 juli 2023
Federaliserna vill gå längre. Det vill ha ett Europas Förenta Stater. Det vill inte Europas folk. Därför tror sig federalisterna, som Schumann och Monnet, vara listiga och genomför det hela i smyg.
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