A plausible case that this time is different - Soft Landing

Could a Recession Still Be Years Away? 

Steady Growth, Moderating Inflation Improve Odds of Extended Expansion

 forecasters have predicted a recession was imminent. But they have postponed the recession’s start date as growth remains steady.

If Fed achieves a soft landing, history suggests economy could keep growing four or five more years  Powell  disclosed that the Fed staff, which earlier this year projected a recession, no longer does. The staff forecast doesn’t necessarily reflect policy makers’ own views. 

The record, near-11 year expansion that ended in February 2020 was unique, killed off not by inflation or a financial crisis, but by a pandemic and lockdowns. Without that, it might still be going on.  

The Fed has never pulled off a soft landing when inflation was so far above its goal and the labor market this overheated. 

Still, there is a plausible case this time is different. In the past, inflation was usually caused by excess demand. This time, a bigger culprit is disrupted supply 

Greg Ip Wall Street Journal 27 July 2023

https://www.wsj.com/articles/could-a-recession-still-be-years-away-soft-landing-could-deliver-another-extended-economic-cycle-e7e2c4ee