Is the Bear Market Over? It Depends.


Still, a rise of 20 percent from a low is, mathematically, less substantial than a fall of 20 percent from a high. 

The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been led by a small group of tech stocks 

Nvidia has rallied almost 170 percent this year — gains that have brought its valuation close to $1 trillion.

The average individual stock in the S&P 500 has risen less than 3 percent this year 

Joe Rennison NYT June 5, 2023

Are Stocks in a New Bull Market? It Depends. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)


The 20% Up Rule — Bull Market Vs. Bear Rally


So now that the rally has topped 20%, is it a new bull market or simply a rally within an ongoing bear market? Pundits on either sides will be able to make their cases — and make them well. So here we attempt to break the arguments down for you.

If there is anything consistent this year, it is the pessimism.

The Case for a Bear Market Rally:

1. Way Too Expensive 2) Way Too Narrow´3) What Recession? 4)  It’s So Overbought 


With hindsight, it’s conceivable that we’ll say that we’re already in a secular bull phase. 

Whether the market goes through the low or not, these are historically strange times. But the clearest message is that nobody should assume that US stocks will rise in a straight line from here, just because they’ve gained 20% from their low. 

John Authers Bloomberg

6 June 2023 







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