As the author of a book entitled “The Death of Inflation”, I find myself in a difficult position
Only a few years ago, when I was introduced as a conference speaker, the chairman would often try to boost my standing with the audience by referring to this book. Published in 1996, they would say, this book was prophetic, and was now completely vindicated by events.
More recently, however, mention of the book has produced roars of laughter.
Safer to suppress any reference to its existence and hope that no one remembers.
I was reminded of this last week by the publication of a fascinating document entitled “How Central Bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation”, by Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson.
They say that central banks became overconfident in their inflation targeting frameworks.
I cannot see that inflation will fall back readily to the 2pc target. By contrast, it is easy to see it settling in a range of something like 4pc to 6pc.
Roger Bootle Telegraph 31 July 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/31/prepare-interest-rate-shock-new-inflationary-era/
25 years since I wrote my book The Death of Inflation.
I wonder whether we can see now on the horizon the beginnings of a regime where the Fed actively seeks to get inflation running at a level significantly above 2pc, not just for a year or two but as the norm.
Roger Bootle Telegraph 13 September 2020
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-feds-change-of-tack-could-mean.html
Lagarde: "We will raise interest rates for as long as it takes to bring inflation back to our target,"
Reuters 22 July 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/lagarde-we-will-raise-interest-rates.html
Powell Fed is “acutely focused on returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.”
CNBC 17 June 2022
Kommentarer