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Subscribe to Trumponomics on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to Trumponomics on Spotify Stephanie Flanders Trumponomics 14 februari 2025    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/munich-security-conference-donald-trump-hands-europe-the-bill-for-ukraine-aid Stephanie Flanders on my blogg https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Stephanie+Flanders+ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 14 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-14-februari-2025.html

But how, exactly, would the euro break up? Now we can see very clearly how it would happen, thanks to a highly illuminating disagreement between the German government and the European Central Bank (ECB). Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics editor, 19 July 2011, 13:12 GMT Most countries suffering financial crises have one crucial weapon at their disposal: they can print money. That means, even if they have to default on their foreign currency debt, they can always print enough domestic currency to stand behind the deposits in their banks. As we know, that is not the case for countries in the eurozone. It's not strictly necessary for people to go to the trouble of opening German bank accounts. If ordinary Greeks simply withdraw euros in cash and hoard it under their beds, you get the same effect. (RE: En grekisk regering kan tvinga banken att omvandla eurokonton till drachmakonton, men eurosedlar i madrassen är ändå alltid rosor.) Greek banks going to the Greek central ba...

On this episode of Trumponomics, we discuss whether the countries in the firing line of America’s latest tariffs should have seen this coming. Host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics,  is joined by  Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times and author of several books, most recently The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. Financial Times 2 april 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/podcast-the-roots-of-trump-s-global-trade-war Martin Wolf “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism” Årets viktigaste bok   februari 20, 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/02/martin-wolf-crisis-of-democratic.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-2-april-2025.html

The driving force of the old globalisation was the falling cost of moving goods.   The driving force of this more recent wave has been the falling cost of moving ideas. Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JPMorgan Asset Management,  FT 8 January 2017

Trump Cancels Iran Strikes, Says Tehran Has ‘Approved’ Talks President says Tehran’s leadership and other parties are negotiating a deal to end the conflict approved ‘discussions and points’ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-new-strikes-on-iran-says-u-s-will-seize-its-oil-and-gas-markets-38996e77 Donald Trumps besked om att ställa in de planerade anfallen mot Iran möttes av glädjeskutt på de ledande indexen på Wall Street.  Vid 21.30-tiden uppgav Donald Trump vid Vita huset att USA ”just nått en fantastisk uppgörelse om kriget med Iran, och väntar på att dokumenten ska färdigställas”, skriver Bloomberg. ”Vi bör vara klara under de närmaste dagarna. Sannolikt blir det ett undertecknande, kanske i Europa”, https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-efter-trumps-utspel-oracle-mot-strommen/ Presidenten skriver att USA ska slå till hårt mot Iran under natten och att man ”vid någon tidpunkt” ska ta över ön Kharg, som har beskrivits som en viktig del av Irans oljeexport. h...

 The former Treasury secretary explains to Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders how he came to the conclusion U.S. prices would skyrocket. You sounded the alarm early in the year and were considered a bit of a crank for doing so initially. But not anymore. What did you see that others didn’t see? Larry Summers: Stephanie, you know, I’ve been right this year, but there have been plenty of years when I’ve been wrong.  Flanders: If wages do go up, and it’s true that we haven’t seen as much as you might have expected in the last few months. But if they, if they do go up—the last 20 years we haven’t seen a follow through from higher wages to higher inflation. Even the Fed’s own model doesn’t include much response from inflation. So why do you think this time will be different? Bloomberg 23 december 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/transcript-larry-summers-gets-his-told-you-so-moment-on-inflation

Global equity markets were worth about $150 trillion at the end of 2021, having doubled in value since March 2020.  The broad S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks even managed to go up on the day the Fed announced it would be tapering off its bond purchases faster to clear the runway for rate liftoff. Many emerging-market economies will face a difficult choice Ziad Daoud of Bloomberg Economics has identified five that are especially vulnerable to rising U.S. rates: Brazil, Egypt, Argentina, South Africa, and Turkey, or the Beasts Fed’s latest forecasts for the unemployment rate and core inflation as consistent with six hikes. But even that would barely take the main U.S. policy rate above 1% by yearend, well below inflation and below the pre-Covid level. It’s been more than four decades since the U.S. saw a wage-price spiral. For America’s hourly workers, pay has barely kept up with inflation since the 1980s Then inflation will start gravitating back toward the Fed’s long-term goal of ...

Masters of Money is a three part BBC Documentary (2012). Stephanie begins by looking at John Maynard Keynes. Many argue only Winston Churchill had a greater impact on British life than Keynes over the last century.  Even today his ideas remain crucial to one of the most important debates of our time: how can we escape from the economic crisis? Should governments borrow and spend their way out of trouble or slash spending and reduce the national debt? With contributions from some of the world's leading economic thinkers including a Nobel laureate and the governor of the Bank of England, Stephanie Flanders argues Keynes has never been more relevant or controversial than now.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7WDzL1hjqQ

The S&P downgrades of France and other Eurozone governments were worse than many expected, but they were expected.  What's most interesting, to me, is not the fact that S&P has done this, but the stated reason. Why? Because, in essence, a major ratings agency has now joined the side of those who say fiscal austerity, as the central plank of the response to the eurozone crisis, is doing more harm than good. The company's statements explaining its various decisions are worth reading in full. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16560626 About Stephanie Stephanie has been a reporter at the New York Times (2001); a speech writer and senior advisor to the US Treasury Secretary (1997-2001);  a Financial Times leader-writer and columnist (1993-7);  and an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and London Business School. She became BBC economics editor in April 2008. She has won numerous awards, including the 2010 Harold Wincott Awar...

As I said on the 10 o'clock news last night, it is not clear why investors should be so thrilled by such an anodyne statement. It didn't say anything that had not been said before - indeed, the words from the French and German side didn't do much more than confirm that Greece was part of the eurozone. That much, we already knew. The question is whether it will stay there.  Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics editor, 15 September 2011

It's a fair bet that there will never be another film on general release that features both Matt Damon and the FT's Chief Economic Commentator, Martin Wolf. Inside Job, the documentary about the financial crisis, also has an Oscar nomination for best documentary film, and some really pretty pictures of Iceland.   Stephanie Flanders, the BBC's economics editor, 17 February 2011

I had a lively debate on this question this week with the BBC's veteran diplomatic correspondent James Robbins on the World Service. I use the word "veteran" advisedly, but as James reminded us, he has been covering European issues for so long, he was there in Maastricht in 1992, when the basic rules for the single European currency were first agreed and signed into law. In the programme we also heard from some distinguished economists from around Europe, all with a slightly different take.  If they can persuade the German Chancellor that it makes sense, even from the standpoint of the public finances, to balance budgets over a longer time frame, they might actually be able to reach a deal.  Lest we forget, this was precisely the argument that Germany made to its European partners a decade ago, in explaining why it was not going to get its budget deficit back to below 3% overnight. Germany's deficit was above 3% in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 a...

Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JPMorgan Asset Management,  FT 8 January 2017

På sina ställen, inte bara i Sverige, förefaller nyliberalismen har muterat till ny-hooverism. Johanna Möllerström, Harvard och Hoover Det skall bli intressant att se hur de svenska ny-hooveristerna skall ta emot President Obamas senaste stimulanspaket på 447 miljarder dollar. Skall de utmåla Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s och  JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli som oansvariga sossar som bara vill blåsa på och inte tänker på den farliga statsskulden? JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli: “The plan would go a long way toward stabilizing confidence, forestalling another recession and jump-starting a self-sustaining economic expansion.” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli: “It offsets what would otherwise have been a huge drag from the fiscal restraint” that was due next year, he said. “The plan reduces the risk of a recession in 2012, though it doesn’t do much for growth in the second half of this year.” Detta enligt Bloomberg  ...

  Donald Trump calls on Opec to push down global oil prices   Germany's Friedrich Merz calls for permanent border controls He said even people seeking asylum would be barred from entering Germany. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/friedrich-merz-kristdemokraten-far.html We will drill, baby, drill; shale output peaked in November 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/we-will-drill-baby-drill-shale-output.html The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, once a hub of globalism and progressive ideals, is now seeing a shift towards embracing the ideology of US President Donald Trump.  With CEOs and other business leaders trying to get in line with his views, many are abandoning previous initiatives around equality, diversity, free trade and climate change.  Stephanie Flanders Bloomberg 22 januari 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-22/podcast-davos-is-learning-the-art-of-the-deal-in-preparation-for-trump Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sie...

  Humöret tinade  framåt kvällen. Som mest ned 2,5 procent på eftermiddagen https://www.di.se/live/borsen-hamtade-upp-det-varsta-raset/ Kursras och kronförstärkning  dubbelsmäll för småspararna DI 2 april 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kursras-och-kronforstarkning-ger-dubbelsmall-for-smaspararna/ Bankernas aktieägare kan se tillbaka på ett bra år Tarrifs Rose Garden; minimum 10%,  China 34%, European Union 20% https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/tarrifs-rose-garden-minimum-10-china-34.html Handelskriget; Klas Eklund förstår delvis  hur de resonerar;  Miran, Martin Wolf, Triffin, Smaghi https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/handelskriget-klas-eklund-forstar.html Skakig New York-handel i väntan på Trump https://www.di.se/live/skakig-new-york-handel-i-vantan-pa-trump/ SaP 1980-2025 US a reactionary power Martin Wolf supposedly communist China is a status quo power. It is one of the most striking economic defeats suffered by America  that I have ...

given that it aggressively phases out tax credits for wind turbines and solar panels. An analysis this week by climate policy think tank Energy Innovation Forecast predicts the legislation will put an end to 300 gigawatts of wind and solar development  that would have otherwise come online over the next 15 years.  That’s the equivalent of 300 nuclear reactors. Stephanie Flanders Bloomberg 9 July 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/podcast-will-trump-s-bill-bring-on-a-big-beautiful-energy-crunch

 ... named after Trump’s Florida home and aimed at deliberately weakening the dollar. A paper written in November 2024 by Stephen Mira poised to lead Trump’s White House Council of Economic Advisers. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf What hasn’t been discussed as much is the paper’s ideas around a grand reordering of world trade and the financial system.   So what is that vision? Does it make any sense intellectually or practically?  A nd how might it change the world if any or all of it were actually attempted? Stephanie Flanders Bloomberg 12 mars 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-12/podcast-stephen-miran-the-man-behind-a-grand-mar-a-lago-plan Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar. That Will Be Easier Said Than Done https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/trump-wants-weaker-dollar-that-will-be.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 13 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.bl...

The descendants of today's England's elite families will stop having an in-built social advantage, and the descendants of poor families will lose their social handicap: there are no permanent social classes, and all groups are regressing to the social mean. That is the good news. The bad news is that it's likely to take about 350 years, and there's not much the government can do to speed the process up. Stephanie Flanders, the BBC's economics editor, 5 April 2011

  Now the world has to cope with inflation, labor shortages and geopolitical unrest. Central banks that ignored the first embers shifted forcefully into firefighting last year, unleashing the fastest, most synchronized tightening of monetary policy in two generations. At the start of 2022, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US government bond was around 1.5%, and the market was expecting the federal fund rates to stay below 1%.  Instead it ended the year above 4%, with 10-year yields expected to be not far short of that level throughout 2023. Is it possible for economies to continue to grow while interest rates and joblessness are going up and both real incomes and house prices are going down?  We are about to find out. Stephanie Flanders Bloomberg 12 january 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/inflation-interest-rates-muddy-2023-economic-outlook Är det så hemskt att vi faktiskt inte vet hur vi skall undvika att den nuvarande ekonomin byggd på en allt ...