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 These Charts Haunt Wall Street Towering valuations, an ever-widening wealth gap and  growing US debt imbalances are just some of the key risks  haunting market watchers. Emily Graffeo Bloomberg October 31, 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/rising-debt-stock-valuations-these-charts-haunt-wall-street Following a brief pause in the S&P 500’s $17 trillion rally, the gauge bounced on solid earnings from Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc.  The bond market steadied. The dollar rose.  A jump in oil waned as President Donald Trump denied he’d made a decision to strike military targets in Venezuela. Bloomberg October 30, 2025 at 11:29 PM GMT+1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates Amazon stock jumped 11% Thursday afternoon,  The rally added some $285 billion to Amazon's market value  —a record, if that increase holds through Friday's close. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-ma...

26-Year-Old Analyst Who Beat Wall Street The lone analyst with a sell rating on Fiserv Inc. ahead of the company’s crushing stock selloff says the writing was on the wall for months. For a large chunk of Wall Street, the fintech’s massive earnings miss was a surprise: Nearly 80% of the analysts covering Fiserv had buy-equivalent ratings as of earlier this week.  But Dominic Ball, a 26-year-old analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn, had slapped a sell-rating on the company in April. Bloomberg 30 October 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/fiserv-s-only-bear-is-a-26-year-old-analyst-who-beat-wall-street Mene Tekel - the writing on the wall

  https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-investment-position-2nd-quarter-2025 Inflation och handelsbalans. Englunds lag 2,0 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/inflation-och-handelsbalans-englunds.html

Meta rasar – 2.100 miljarder upp i rök Stängde ned 11,4 procent. https://www.di.se/live/techjattar-sankte-nasdaqs-kompositindex/ https://www.di.se/live/meta-rasar-2-100-miljarder-upp-i-rok/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/meta-microsoft-test-investors-patience-with-ai-spending-spree Nvidia https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/nvidia.html

 

Inte ens Tony Blair, som ofta talade om att landet måste befinna sig ”i Europas hjärta” och närde drömmar om att övertala britterna om att införa euron som valuta, lyckades riktigt förstå att européerna faktiskt menade allvar med sitt projekt och på lång sikt tänkte bygga en federal stat. I sin nya bok om britternas stundtals panikslagna ambivalens inför unionens framväxt, ”Between the waves: The hidden history of a very British revolution 1945–2016” (Picador), visar Tom McTague elegant och övertygande att inte ens de mest positivt sinnade bland öarnas politiker har kunnat förlika sig med européernas integrationslystnad. Labourledaren och sedermera premiärministern Harold Wilson uttryckte saken 1961: ”Vi har ingen rätt att svika våra vänner och anfäder [runtom i världen], bara för att nå en problematisk och marginell fördel när det gäller att sälja tvättmaskiner i Düsseldorf.” Brexit tycks slutligen ha gett de Gaulle rätt.  EU:s bultande hjärta, fördragsskrivningen om att skapa e...

The warning adds to a drumbeat of concern after the $12bn collapse of US auto parts giant First Brands was followed by two regional US banks sounding the alarm over bad loans. This has prompted fears that the incidents could be symptomatic of more serious problems in the market. Private credit involves companies borrowing from specialist funds, often run by private equity. Compared with traditional bank lending, there is less regulation and transparency. The market’s size has ballooned 50pc in recent years, and the International Monetary Fund estimates that banks worldwide now have about $4.5tn of exposure to private credit players, not all of which has been drawn down. Fitch was also seeing more creative ways of packaging the debt, known as “financial innovation”. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/29/shadow-banking-bubble-risks-global-shock-warns-fitch/ The private credit market $1.5 trillion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-private-credit-market-15-trillion.ht...

France, the United Kingdom, the United States, and even Germany are all in fiscal jeopardy, with ballooning liabilities for pensions, welfare programs, and military expenditure that politicians dare not shrink nor fund through higher taxes.  Some conclude that democracy cannot deliver fiscal prudence because the demos cannot be persuaded to live within its means.  But there is an alternative explanation: The cause of our fiscal woes is that we live not in democracies but, rather, under oligarchic rule punctuated by periodic elections. Free and fair elections enable people with spare time and money to win office, which is a very different thing from gaining power.  Once elected, central-bank independence denies them control over monetary policy, while already overburdened budgets and fear of bond vigilantes limit what they can do in the fiscal domain.  In France, the latest ground zero of fiscal distress, the richest 500 families’ wealth has soared from 6% of national...

  Nvidia Poised to Become First $5 Trillion Company https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/nvidia-poised-to-become-first-5.html   Bloomberg Editorial Fed would be wiser to pause https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/bloomberg-editorial-fed-would-be-wiser.html Fed sänker räntan med 0,25 procentenheter.  Fed uppger också att de kommer avsluta de kvantitativa åtstramningarna den 1 december i år.   Ledamöterna som beslutar om räntan var oeniga kring beslutet.  Två av 12 ledamöter reserverade sig mot sänkningen.  https://www.di.se/live/fed-sanker-rantan-med-25-punkter-1/ Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Still 2%? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/is-feds-inflation-target-still-2.html Stockholmsbörsen fortsatte nedåt på onsdagen.  Wallenbergtrion Epiroc, SKF och Electrolux Professional föll.  https://www.di.se/live/sur-borsstangning-i-stockholm-stora-rorelser-i-rapportbolag/ Efter flera rekordhöga stängningar avslutar två av tre index i...

  The Federal Reserve’s policymakers ought to ask why, with inflation stuck at 3%, investors have so confidently priced in at least two further interest-rate cuts starting today. Core PCE inflation (the central bank’s preferred measure) fell to 3.1% at the end of 2023.  Two years later, it’s still roughly 3%.  Fed says the long-term real interest rate is 1%.  With inflation at 3%, that suggests a neutral policy rate of 4%, which is about where it stands.  Powell and his colleagues constantly affirm their commitment to the 2% goal. And it says a lot for their standing that they are still mostly believed, in financial markets at least. If, despite everything, cuts were already a done deal, one can’t help but wonder what became of 2% inflation. Clive Crook  Boomberg October 29, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-29/is-the-fed-s-inflation-target-still-2 How Interest Rates Have Changed  https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate...

One of the more lucrative arenas in the artificial-intelligence boom: hiring thousands of white-collar professionals to train the very machines that could one day replace and augment their work. Mercor counts OpenAI and Anthropic among its customers. All three co-founders dropped out a few years into college to start Mercor.  Soon after leaving school, they became Thiel Fellows, a program created by venture investor Peter Thiel that funds companies started by college dropouts. Angel Au-Yeung WSJ Oct. 27, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-startup-fueling-chatgpts-expertise-is-now-valued-at-10-billion-f1281e56 Mercor  https://mercor.com/ Peter Thiel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel  

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-poised-to-become-first-5-trillion-company-ae513ff0 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-first-5-trillion-company-market-cap-ae513ff0 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate-decision-live-10-29-2025/card/here-is-nvidia-s-journey-toward-5-trillion-TUnrENePAPG6WEoVmY64?mod=lctimeline_finance Både Apple och Microsoft var över drömgränsen 4 000 miljarder dollar i börsvärde under handelsdagen.  https://www.di.se/live/ny-rekordstangning-pa-wall-street-nvidia-lyfte-rejalt/

To counter the economic impact of the pandemic, the Fed embarked on a program of quantitative easing, buying up trillions of dollars’ worth of securities to keep long-term interest rates low.  As a result, the central bank’s balance sheet swelled to close to $9 trillion. Since 2022, the Fed has been reversing that stimulus through quantitative tightening, letting its balance sheet shrink by $2.2 trillion. And some experts think conditions in the money markets indicate that the Fed is in danger of repeating its 2019 mistake of taking too much liquidity out of the system.  They are urging the Fed to restart buying securities. MarketWatch 28 October 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-looks-set-to-end-its-massive-market-intervention-can-it-do-that-without-spooking-traders-e15f2233 The Fed’s $6.6 Trillion Test; QT after QE https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-feds-66-trillion-test-qt.html

  Avsiktsförklaringen om köp av JAS var i praktiken en stark symbolisk gest för det militära stödet till Ukraina.  Samtidigt riktade den fokus mot frågan om möjligheten för europeiska banker att använda de omkring tvåtusen miljarder kronor i frysta ryska tillgångar till stöd för denna insats. Att detta ännu inte har genomförts sedan krigsutbrottet visar att frågan är minst sagt kontroversiell. Det saknas en tydlig folk- och EU-rättslig grund för ett sådant beslut. Därmed skulle man själv bryta mot de lagar och förordningar som Ryssland i dag kritiseras för att ha överträtt.  Skulle det bli uppenbart att handeln och banksystemet inom eurozonen kan användas som ett vapen mot utomstående parter i konflikt med det europeiska etablissemanget, riskerar det att undergräva tilltron till Europa som pålitlig handelspartner. Man kan ifrågasätta Ulf Kristerssons och Moderaternas omdöme, som ger ett sådant ingrepp sitt fulla stöd.    Till råga på allt har statsministern och ...

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate on Oct. 29, and once more by the end of the year, but the case for cutting is weak. Core consumer-price inflation remains well above the central bank's target, and unemployment is still in line with the bank's mandate of "maximum employment". The Fed would be wiser to pause due to enormous uncertainty about where the economy is headed, with the inflation outlook and labor market trends being equally murky. Bloomberg Editorial Board October 28, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/federal-reserve-should-pause-in-cutting-interest-rates John Authers Bloomberg  October 29, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-10-29/record-stock-prices-aren-t-the-result-of-politics The stock market more overvalued than at almost any time in U.S. history https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/this-bull-market-has-no-support-this.html  

If it is Mr Mamdani, voters will deliver one of the most stunning results in the city’s history.  A 34-year-old Democratic Socialist with a  progressive agenda, but no executive experience, would take charge of America’s largest city.   How did New York get here?  To call Mr Mamdani “charismatic” understates the appeal he exerts on his supporters, many of them young and ethnically diverse.  Mr Mamdani’s gifts as a made-for-TikTok video auteur are well-known, but his campaign’s message discipline has been as impressive.  He has made his affordability platform—rent freezes, housing investment, free child care, free buses—the main story of the election,  while avoiding culture-war traps and shouting matches with Donald Trump, who calls him a communist. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/10/28/a-political-drama-for-the-ages-opening-soon-in-new-york-city

  Candidates and member states will meet in Brussels on 4 November for a debate organised and hosted by Euronews. The European Union's enlargement policy has gained political momentum since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  A new poll indicates that more than half of Europeans support the process. According to a Eurobarometer poll, the most supportive Member States are Sweden (79%), Denmark (75%) and Lithuania (74%).  Conversely, Austria (45%), the Czech Republic (43%) and France (43%) are the least receptive. The support comes to a large extent from young people and educated people. However, enlargement also raises concerns.  40% of citizens mention uncontrolled immigration, 39% point to the risks of corruption and crime, and 37% are concerned about the cost to taxpayers of this opening up. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/10/28/56-of-citizens-support-eu-enlargement-new-eurobarometer-poll-shows

På mindre än tio år har Sveriges kostnader för civilt försvar ökat från noll till över 13 miljarder kronor. Och mer ska det bli när såväl beredskapslager som civilplikt återintroduceras.  Men vart går pengarna och hur vet vi att de används rätt? SvD 28 oktober 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/63p0Ke/carl-oskar-bohlin-om-civilplikt-beredskapslager-och-var-civila-forsvarsformaga Ett ideologiskt tal som ministern för civilt försvar, Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), höll på Folks och försvars rikskonferens i Sälen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/konservatismer-och-carl-oskar-bohlin.html https://www.regeringen.se/tal/2025/01/tal-av-minister-for-civilt-forsvar-carl-oskar-bohlin-pa-folk-och-forsvars-rikskonferens-2025/ Bohlins karriärväg säger mycket om vår tid Förr i världen kunde politiker bli berömda för sitt brinnande ideologiska engagemang, gärna i kombination med utvecklad talarkonst. Det gällde såväl Hjalmar Branting som Karl Staaf, Olof Palme och Bertil Ohlin.  Det går inte i dag. D...

The Fed expanded its enormous portfolio—sometimes called a balance sheet—during the 2007-09 financial crisis  and again during the pandemic when it bought colossal quantities of government debt and mortgage-backed securities to stabilize markets and stimulate the economy. Officials have been gradually shrinking the balance sheet since 2022, when it reached nearly $9 trillion, by letting securities mature without replacing them.  Fed officials don’t want the balance sheet to be so big because supplying trillions of dollars of interest-bearing reserves to the banking system carries political costs,  such as paying large amounts of interest to banks. When the Fed purchases securities, it creates reserves—electronic cash that banks hold at the central bank.  When the securities mature, that electronic money drains out of the financial system. Nick Timiraos WSJ Oct. 28, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-feds-6-6-trillion-test-when-to-end-its-portfolio-r...

Nvidia upp 5 procent Både Apple och Microsoft var över drömgränsen  4 000 miljarder dollar i börsvärde under handelsdagen.  Apple föll dock tillbaka medan Microsoft stängde upp 2 procent.  https://www.di.se/live/ny-rekordstangning-pa-wall-street-nvidia-lyfte-rejalt/ EQT:s mål Investera 2.700 miljarder i Europa  ”Vi vill bli störst i världen” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/eqts-mal-investera-2700-miljarder-i.html Stockholmsbörsens uppgångssvit bruten https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsens-uppgangssvit-bruten/ Sveriges elbehov 300 TWh år 2045, dubblering från dagens nivå. Och den måste vara fossilfri. Skakiga elpriser gör det svårt att räkna hem investeringar för fjärr- och kraftvärme.  Sveriges Ingenjörer vill därför att regeringen nu inför en beredskapsbonus.  Denna ska bestå av en ekonomisk ersättning till elproducenter vars kraftslag kan tillhandahålla fossilfri el när vi har som störst behov av det  och har en avgörande betydelse f...

Förra veckan meddelade EQT att de satsar på att investera 250 miljarder dollar i USA de kommande fem åren.   https://www.di.se/nyheter/eqt-s-mal-investera-2-700-miljarder-i-europa/ Läs mer: EQT-chefen: ”Vi vill bli störst i världen” https://www.di.se/nyheter/eqt-chefen-vi-vill-bli-storst-i-varlden/ EQT grundades 1994 av Wallenbergsfärens Investor och Conni Jonsson.  https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/EQT Sverige per capita ett av världens miljardärtätaste länder EQT grundaren Conni Jonsson leder med en förmögenhet på 19 miljarder. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/eqt-sverige-per-capita-ett-av-varldens.html Med ett nordiskt arv och ett globalt perspektiv har EQT en trettioårig erfarenhet av att leverera konsekvent och attraktiv avkastning över flertalet länder, sektorer och strategier. https://eqtgroup.com/sv/aktieagare Investor substansvärde över 1.000 miljarder kronor. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/investor-substansvarde-over-1000.html

The U.S. government announced a pact to build at least $80 billion worth of nuclear reactors, in a pact to meet the growing power demands caused by artificial intelligence. “Our administration is focused on ensuring the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies. This historic partnership supports our national security objectives and enhances our critical infrastructure,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement. The AP1000 technology from Westinghouse has already been selected for nuclear-energy programs in Poland, Ukraine and Bulgaria. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-says-80-billion-worth-of-nuclear-reactors-will-be-built-camecos-stock-jumps-356b5b0f AP1000 technology from Westinghouse  https://westinghousenuclear.com/energy-systems/ap1000-pwr/ Nya reaktorer vid Ringhals Vattenfall meddelade att det blir GE Vernova eller Rolls-Royce SMR som ska få uppdraget att bygga nya reaktorer vid Ringhals.  Dessutom att det är modulära re...

– Jag ser de nordiska länderna som Europas Polstjärna, säger Ursula von der Leyen. Vid mötet deltar även ledarna för Danmark, Finland, Island, Norge, Färöarna och Åland.   SvT 28 oktober 2025 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/eu-kommissionens-ursula-von-der-leyen-till-stockholm-for-nordiskt-toppmote  

Postwar Germany has appeared to the world as a model democracy and economy for fully seven decades. For the most part Germany’s economy grew steadily and inclusively, led by world-beating manufacturing exports. But now Germany is firmly in the grip of malaise. The country’s export-led economic model has been unable to cope with its loss of competitiveness to China, and resentment of immigration has reached its highest level in the postwar years  Germany, like much of the West, is experiencing a rising far-right populist tide, with Alternative für Deutschland questioning the fundamental assumptions and norms of political behavior that that have governed Germany since the Federal Republic’s founding in 1949. In exchange for receiving Marshall Plan aid, the German authorities were required to balance the budget, contain inflation, dismantle rationing, remove wage and price controls, encourage private enterprise, and liberalize trade.  In effect, they were asked to implement what ...

The stock market is more overvalued than at almost any time in U.S. history — by virtually every measure. The fact that corporate profits are strong and growing doesn’t mean the stock market isn’t in a bubble.  That’s worth emphasizing because many of Wall Street’s cheerleaders are arguing we can’t be in a bubble if corporations are as profitable as they are.  The same message is being told by virtually all valuation measures with statistically significant track records when forecasting the stock market’s future returns.  The bulls have no real support for this bull market other than “this time is different.”  Those are the four most dangerous words on Wall Street. Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 27 October 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-more-overvalued-than-at-almost-any-time-in-u-s-history-by-virtually-any-measure-2291e264   Margin debt is at a record high $1.13 trillion 1.130 miljarder dollar, typ 10.000 miljarder kronor. https://englundm...

Rejält muntra miner på Wall Street helgens uppgifter  om att Kina och USA kommit överens i viktiga delar  Qualcomm steg 11,1 procent ger sig in i AI-branschen.  https://www.di.se/live/borsgladje-pa-wall-street-infor-kina-motet/ Fler börsrekord i sikte, Trump och Fomo Det är väl bara att medge att det handlar om Donald Trump. Att han verkar komma överens med sin kinesiska kollega Xi om ett ”helt fantastiskt handelsavtal”. Efter att ha legat svagt på plus tog Stockholmsbörsen ett skutt uppåt när Wall Street öppnade, men föll sedan tillbaka något.  Både det breda indexet OMXSPI och storbolagsindexet OMXS30 stängde på plus 0,4 procent. https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-inledde-veckan-uppat/ När världens två största ekonomier är på kollisionskurs orsakar det oro som riskerar att sprida sig in i minsta verkstad på det småländska höglandet. Även om vår svenska riksbank bedöms ha sänkt klart, kommer positiva impulser från amerikanska centralbanken som lär sänka styrrän...