Article 5; Olivier Wieviorka, historian: 'The current context bears some resemblance to the situation before the Second World War'

In 1914, the automaticity of alliances led to conflagration; in 1939, the opposite was true. 

The alliance system was so weak (or cowardly?) that it had no deterrent virtue. The führer was therefore able to methodically play his tricks, 

from the remilitarization of the Rhineland (1936) to the invasion of Czechoslovakia (March 15, 1939).

 He then took the risk of aggressing against Poland, counting on its allies' abstention. "Our enemies are little worms. I saw them at Munich," he told his military chiefs. 

The declaration of war from London and then Paris therefore came as a surprise, since the Reich was banking on a limited conflict.

For although Article 5 of the treaty obliges the signatories to react, it does not postulate the use of cannons: 

The parties must only take actions deemed necessary, "including the use of armed force." In short, the use of weapons is merely one option left to the free judgment of states.

The war went global in 1941, not because of a fatal chain of events, but because the Axis had decided to do so. 

This factor explains why the causes of the Second World War, unlike the First, have never given rise to controversy, so obvious are the responsibilities of Japan and Nazi Germany.

Le Monde 5 March

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/03/05/olivier-wieviorka-historian-the-current-context-bears-some-resemblance-to-the-situation-that-prevailed-before-the-second-world-war_6738827_23.html

Försvarsminister Pål Jonson ser ingen anledning att tvivla på USA:s inställning till artikel fem. 

Däremot säger han till DN att Europa måste ta ett större ansvar för försvaret eftersom den stora säkerhetspolitiska utmaningen för USA i dag snarare är Kina.

Sen vill vi se fortsatt amerikansk militär närvaro i Europa. Den har ökat kraftfullt efter den fullskaliga invasionen, men man kan inte ta för givet att den fortsätter vara i den här omfattningen.

DN 6 mars 2025

https://www.dn.se/sverige/linde-europa-kan-inte-lita-pa-fullt-militart-stod-fran-usa/

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that,

if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations,

will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, 

such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. 

Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security . 

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm

Det är väl alldeles uppenbart vem som startade Första Världskriget?

Kejsaren av Österrike-Ungern - en Habsburgare - undertecknade ordern om angrepp på Serbien

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/07/germany-before-1914-it-was-as-liberal.html

RE: Men rycktes väl med av tidsandan och kunde inte säga Nej när hans generaler kom in med anfallsordern som han skulle underteckna.

Tänk om han hade vägrat.

Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 4 mars 2025

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-4-mars-2025.html