Probability of soft landing 10 per cent

 I would estimate the probability of a comfortable soft landing for the economy and markets over the next 12 months at 10 per cent, well below three other macroeconomic scenarios. 

Fed that is forced into slamming on the policy brakes in response to persistently high inflation (40 per cent probability). 

A third scenario is stagflation (20 per cent), the most worrisome outcome for livelihoods, financial stability and policy effectiveness.

Mohamed El-Erian FT 21 February 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/71982abb-a79d-4fb6-8f62-49ec5e9679c5

The Federal Reserve seems to be achieving the fabled soft landing

Tim Duy Bloomberg 17 april 2019 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-federal-reserve-seems-to-be.html

 

 “Stagflation” remains a word not uttered in the polite company of the financial world.

"Many of today's investors were still in diapers (blöjbarn) during the great stagflation of the 1970s.

Those who weren't will never forget the darkest period in modern financial market history."

 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/stagflation-remains-word-not-uttered-in.html