Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash

For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham has been calling market bubbles. Now, he says U.S. stocks are in a “super bubble,” only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse.

Schatzker: If you are right and stocks are in a multi-sigma deviation from the statistical trend, tell me what happens. The S&P 500 peaked at almost 4800 points. What is the bottom?

Grantham: The trend line, being slightly generous, is 2500. And most of the great bubbles, the super bubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while.

Mish: There's much more in the interview. The above only covers 9 of 37 minutes. Watch the video in entirety.

The second favor you can do for yourself is read Jeremy Grantham's GMO Viewpoint: Let the Wild Rumpus Begin. You will haver to register to see it, but it will be worth it. 

The third favor you can do for yourself is start paying attention to John Hussman. Yes, I know, many consider him to be a washed up permabear. Well, evaluations matter eventually. That time is now
Why is it so hard to accept that speculative bubbles can burst?
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-is-it-so-hard-to-accept-that.html

Is the any escape? In aggregate no. For every seller there is a buyer. In this case a buy the dipper. 

Someone must hold every stock every step of the way down, and pension funds will do just that.

Individually, investors have a choice.

Mish 23 February 2022

https://mishtalk.com/economics/most-people-have-no-idea-how-much-socks-are-likely-to-crash

 

U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble.html