Här är förklaringen, med länk till ECB om TPI

 


In the decade that followed the euro zone debt crisis, France stood out as an island of stability amid Europe’s turbulent politics. More recently, French national politics have become polarized, angry and hostile to compromise. 

The effort to return to stable government is now forcing Macron to abandon some of his red lines and allow for tax increases and other measures to plug the national deficit. 

He has also had to swallow the proposed suspension of one of his signature policy measures — an overhaul of the pension system that involved raising the minimum retirement age — as the price of avoiding the dismissal of another prime minister.


Without a credible plan to rein in deficits, France’s debt could drift onto an unsustainable path in coming years as borrowing costs rise following a decade of exceptionally low interest rates.

The increase in yields since 2022 will feed through only gradually as French debt has a relatively long average maturity of above eight years.

Bloomberg 24 November 2025

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-24/macron-le-pen-and-the-forces-driving-france-s-political-crisis


The European Central Bank will always step in to mop up French debt in the end because the eurozone would disintegrate if it did not.

In strict legal terms, the ECB may activate its intervention tool (TPI) only to buy the debt of countries that pursue “sound fiscal and macroeconomic policies” and where the “trajectory of public debt is sustainable”. 

France obviously fails the test 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/france-on-autopilot-by-enarques-and-its.html


ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who is in charge of market operations at the ECB, said that TPI “is only used in countries that pursue sound and sustainable fiscal and macroeconomic policies.”

She highlighted that the central bank “cannot counter persistent tensions that are due to country fundamentals” with the instrument.

Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/ecb-officials-see-no-cause-for-alarm.html


https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/godmorgon-24-november-2025.html


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