People keep asking me, “When is the crisis you’re predicting going to happen?”
I think the answer is December 19, 2029. (Please note, sarcastic humor and not a forecast.) The CBO now projects federal debt will reach $50.7 trillion in 2034 which will, if their other economic assumptions are correct, equal 122% of GDP. I expect our political heroes to keep kicking the can down the road until the road gets too steep, as it will at some point. The limits are real. Private investors can’t and won’t buy government debt whose repayment is doubtful in real inflation-adjusted terms—or will demand such high rates the debt will explode even higher. This came to mind as I was thinking about the magisterial 2009 book This Time Is Different by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. - Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang!, confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits. - There is no way to know when it will happen. There is no magic debt level, no magic drop in currencies, no percentage