Fed’s Barr Says Regulators Are Eyeing Commercial Real Estate Risk

Supervisors are looking at what banks are doing to mitigate potential losses, how they are reporting risks to their boards and senior management, and whether they have enough reserves and capital to handle CRE loan losses, said Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision

With more office and apartment buildings headed for distress, the central bank issued guidelines on Thursday for its annual stress tests that put extra emphasis on identifying risks in commercial property.

Barr is leading efforts to tighten scrutiny after the Fed faced criticism by its inspector general after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank a year ago. 

Supervisors’ mid-size bank examination approach as applied to SVB “did not evolve with SVB’s growth and increased complexity,” and did not effectively transition the firm to the large bank examination process, according to the inspector general office.

Bloomberg 16 February 2024

Regulators Eye Commercial Real Estate Risk, Bank Downgrades, Fed's Barr Says - Bloomberg


Most likely sources of credit event

Systemic Risk Concerns Grow  - US CRE, China real estate 

Hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates and alleviate some of the pressure on real estate were dented by stronger-than-expected inflation numbers this week. 

Traders are now wagering on less than 90 basis points of cuts this year — almost half of what was expected in January.

More than $900 billion of debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate will require refinancing or property sales this year 

Bloomberg 17 February 2024

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-17/systemic-risk-concerns-grow-among-fund-managers-amid-real-estate-tremors






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