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2022-09-03

‘Why Shouldn't It Be as Bad as the 1970s?': Niall Ferguson

 Historian Niall Ferguson warned Friday that the world is sleepwalking into an era of political and economic upheaval akin to the 1970s — only worse.

Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Ferguson said the catalyst events had already occurred to spark a repeat of the 70s, a period characterized by financial shocks, political clashes and civil unrest. 

Yet this time, the severity of those shocks was likely to be greater and more sustained.

CNBC 2 September 2022 

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/why-shouldnt-it-be-as-bad-as-the-1970s-historian-niall-ferguson-has-a-warning-for-investors/3849678/


Inflation could repeat the 1960s, Niall Ferguson says at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy.

CNBC  3 Septembr 2021, repeat 2021.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/inflation-could-repeat-1960s-niall.html


Europe is heading for recession. How bad will it be?

Its inflation shock is coinciding with an economic downturn

This week energy prices reached once-unimaginable heights: more than €290 ($291) per megawatt hour (mwh) for benchmark gas to be delivered in the fourth quarter of the year (the usual pre-pandemic price was around €30); 

and more than €1,200 per mwh for daytime electricity for the same quarter in Germany (up from around €60).

Because gas is the marginal fuel in most European electricity markets, it sets the price for power more broadly.

ECB is now determined to bring annual inflation back to its target of 2%, from the alarming 9.1% recorded in August. September 8th, possibly lifting rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. 

(RE: From zero to 0,75)

All this suggests that the European economy is certain to enter a recession, led by Germany, Italy and central and eastern Europe.

The Economist 31 August 2022

Editor’s note (September 2nd 2022): On September 2nd Gazprom said that its Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not resume supplies of gas to Europe  

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/31/europe-is-heading-for-recession-how-bad-will-it-be




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