Big reason for caution is consensus itself. Pessimists are quite hard to find.

Permabear Albert Edwards at Société Générale says he still believes US stocks are in a valuation bubble that will drag down the economy when it collapses. 

But even he notes that “I struggle to see an imminent macro trigger for a major bear market”.

The overwhelming optimism means small slip-ups can produce painful volatility.

Katie Martin FT 17 December 2025

https://www.ft.com/content/494676c5-d499-455e-b38a-a5fe02ba0ac8

 

Société Générale’s Albert Edwards has taken things one step further, warning that an ”everything bubble” appeared to be taking shape in the U.S. and pointing to stocks and housing as especially exposed.

However, Edwards has been warning about a bubble for some time.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/b-ordet-ater-b-som-i-bubbla.html



What makes a Minsky moment?

The term refers to the end stage of a prolonged period of economic prosperity that has encouraged investors to take on excessive risk, to the point where lending exceeds what borrowers can pay off. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-mere-mention-of-minsky-moment-is.html


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