The talk about the Federal Reserve’s next move. It is endless and everywhere.
The one place we see unambiguously good news lately is the stock market.
Investors are betting heavily that artificial intelligence technologies, and construction of the needed infrastructure, will outweigh other economic headwinds.
The trillions in spending these four companies are planning (estimated to be almost $7 trillion) in 2026–2030 is staggering. All of it will go into someone’s pocket, constituting a giant economic stimulus comparable to anything the federal government could do.
President Donald Trump has called on Fec Governor Lisa Cook to resign
Will spending really reach those levels? And when will it produce actual profits?
Try to imagine what the economy would look like right now if AI expenditures weren’t stimulating growth and creating a wealth effect on high-end consumer spending.
Pillar of the Economy: Spending by the Wealthy
How will these companies generate the multiple trillion dollars of revenue needed to show a reasonable return on investment of $6 trillion by the end of the decade?
How much inflation is acceptable? I’ve argued their 2% target is too high. I have been in the room with several Nobel laureates who maintained the target should be 4%. Further, what do we consider “full” employment? Equations can’t answer these questions.
The current employment problem is highly concentrated in the youngest workers. We need policies to help them, but it’s hard to see how lower interest rates would make much difference.
John Mauldin August 22, 2025
Stängningsrekord på Dow Jones. Fedchefen Jerome Powell anslog en duvaktig ton vid sitt tal i Jackson Hole
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