We were supposed to be in a recession by now. The exact opposite happened

The Errors Tour: How the Pros Bungled the End of Zero Interest Rates

A look at the ways forecasters, traders and executives missed the mark over the past two years. And at the lessons learned.

We were supposed to be in a recession by now, at least if you listened to mainstream economists. 

The exact opposite happened: Unemployment is down near a half-century low, consumers keep spending, and residential real estate demand remains insatiable.

Bloomberg News 14 februari 2024

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/the-errors-tour-how-finance-pros-bungled-the-end-of-zero-interest-rates

Economics is the most mathematical of the social sciences. 

That’s not because economists are smarter than, say, sociologists or political scientists; trust me, it’s quite possible to say stupid things with equations 

In particular, the Fed would very much like to know how high it needs to keep the interest rate — or more precisely, the interest rate minus expected inflation — to avoid overheating the economy

Based on the available data, you can believe whatever you want to believe.

Paul Krugman New York Times 25 August 2023

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/its-quite-possible-to-say-stupid-things.html