We were supposed to be in a recession by now. The exact opposite happened

The Errors Tour: How the Pros Bungled the End of Zero Interest Rates

A look at the ways forecasters, traders and executives missed the mark over the past two years. And at the lessons learned.

We were supposed to be in a recession by now, at least if you listened to mainstream economists. 

The exact opposite happened: Unemployment is down near a half-century low, consumers keep spending, and residential real estate demand remains insatiable.

Bloomberg News 14 februari 2024


Economics is the most mathematical of the social sciences. 

That’s not because economists are smarter than, say, sociologists or political scientists; trust me, it’s quite possible to say stupid things with equations 

In particular, the Fed would very much like to know how high it needs to keep the interest rate — or more precisely, the interest rate minus expected inflation — to avoid overheating the economy

Based on the available data, you can believe whatever you want to believe.

Paul Krugman New York Times 25 August 2023



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