The Great Rates Descent Will Be Nasty, Brutish and Long

The challenge of retreating without tipping into a recession, or allowing price rises to return. 

For central bankers — stranded with policy rates far too high for their comfort but reluctant to take the risk of cutting them — the analogy /with Descending a mountain/ is doubly uncomfortable. 

Descending a mountain is more hazardous than the ascent. That’s when accidents happen.

To track the climbdown, Points of Return is launching The Year of Descending Dangerously, a suite of indicators that we will update monthly. 

The chances are that it will take longer and move more slowly than many now seem to anticipate

John Authers et al. Bloomberg 26 March 2024

The phrase “nasty, brutish, and short” originates from Thomas Hobbes’ book Leviathan (1651)

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