US Core Inflation Tops Forecasts Again - Därför ignorerar börsen inflationsmissen

 

Bloomberg 12 mars 2024 at 13:32 CET

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/us-core-inflation-tops-forecasts-for-a-second-straight-month

Historisk nivå: OMXS30 på 2.500

DI 12 mars 11.58

https://www.di.se/live/historisk-niva-omxs30-pa-2-500/

Årets bästa börsdag i Stockholm 

Stockholmsbörsens breda index OMXSPI stängde plus 1,5 procent

https://www.di.se/live/arets-basta-borsdag-i-stockholm-volvo-slog-rekord/

The 2-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.597%.

The 10-year rate jumped 5.1 basis points to 4.154%.

The 30-year yield rose 3.6 basis points to 4.311%.

Finansmarknaderna kan vara krävande. För närvarande har de prisat in en nästintill perfekt utveckling under de närmaste månaderna – inte minst i USA, där det senaste årets urstarka börsutveckling lett till höga värderingar som nu mer eller mindre kräver räntesänkningar för att överleva på sikt.

Tror man – som majoriteten av både analytikerna och investerarna – att Fed slår till med en sänkning i juni finns det därmed gott om tid att ta igen vad som ärligt talat är en ganska liten miss.

För det andra kommer uppgången från rätt delar av korgen.

Felicia Åkerman DI 12 mars 2024, 14:39

https://www.di.se/analys/darfor-ignorerar-borsen-inflationsmissen/

How do Fed lower rates when PCE is still close to 3%, the economy is doing better than most expected,

the markets literally seem to be making highs almost every other week, and unemployment is under 4%?

Desperately Seeking Neutral

Desperately Seeking Restrictive

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-fed-is-trapped-and-everyone-knows-it.html

Biden declared in the State of the Union address that “the landing is and will be soft.” 

Way back in 1973, America was experiencing a troubling rise in inflation. But George Shultz, the Treasury secretary at the time, suggested that the problem would be transitory — that the economy could have a “soft landing.”

It didn’t. The 1970s were infamously a decade of stagflation, and inflation was finally brought under control in the 1980s only via tight money policies that caused years of very high unemployment.

So President Biden was tempting fate a bit when he declared in the State of the Union address that “the landing is and will be soft.” 

But he’s almost surely right.

I believe that there are good reasons not to take those hot inflation numbers too seriously. I’m actually a bit more worried about rising risks of recession.

underlying inflation is well under 3 percent.

Paul Krugmam NYT 12 March 2024