Reddit, Lehman Brothers, Newton och tulpanlökarna

Reddit - 16 miljarder foruminlägg värderas till 84 miljarder kronor

Kan det vara toppen på spekulationsberget? 

Har folk alldeles tappat fattningen?

Hussman, jag och andra björnar har i många år varnat för Den Stora Kraschen och haft fullständigt fel.

Det har varit många tunga år för oss björnar

John P. Hussman - Universal Capitulation and No Margin of Safety

Nu sticker jag ut hakan igen och säger att jag tror att nästa krasch kommer att kallas Reddit-kraschen, analogt med Lehman Brothers.

Någon gång skall jag väl få rätt.

Vid den så kallade South Sea Bubble år 1720 förlorade till och med Newton sitt livs besparingar. 

Om Newton kan dras med i euforin kan det drabba vem som helst.

Tulipmania in the Netherlands in the 1630s

It seems all so much easier with hindsight: looking back, we can all enjoy a laugh

Hyman Minsky And Asset Price Inflation Versus Consumer Price Inflation

https://www.internetional.se/minskybank.htm

Bubbles From 1792BC onwards

Vad hände sedan?

Mer om Reddit

Reddit now boasts roughly 73 million daily users and more than $800 million in revenue, but has yet to turn an annual profit. 

The vast majority of revenue comes from advertising, though Reddit is trying to branch out beyond ads to make money. Last year it launched a data-licensing business, and the company recently announced that it reached its first major deal with Google.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/reddits-stock-jumps-in-ipo-9b1536ee

Already one of the most highly paid CEOs in the U.S., Steve Huffman will get a bonus of more than $20 million if Reddit’s stock can maintain a $5 billion market capitalization

For context, only one CEO of a public company had 2022 compensation higher than Huffman’s 2023 total,

And then there’s perhaps the strangest CEO award in at least a decade. Beyond the $17 million in cash and roughly $19 million in stock that Huffman is receiving as a result of Reddit’s offering, he will receive shares worth more than $22 million at the IPO price — but only if Reddit can maintain a $5 billion market capitalization for two weeks out of next five months or so.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-reddit-ipo-clock-is-ticking-on-ceos-strange-bet-on-the-stocks-performance-7805f9d5

Största aktieägare i Reddit är Advance Publications som bland annat äger tidningarna New Yorker, Vogue och Wired.

https://www.svd.se/a/76XgW8/reddit-borsnoteras-aktien-rusar

Som tredje största ägare i Reddit blev Open AI:s vd Sam Altman över 2 miljarder kronor rikare i torsdagens börsdebut. 

https://www.di.se/digital/sam-altman-2-miljarder-kronor-rikare-pa-en-dag/