Stock Market Bears Have Thrown in the Towel
Belief in a hard landing in the US is over.
Doubters may now predict a soft one, but markets are positioned for no landing at all.
Stock market bears have given up. That shouldn’t be a surprise after the S&P 500 has closed at yet another all-time high.
Its current run without a pullback of even as much as 2% now stretches to five months.
But the details of just how they came to throw in the towel, and what they now expect, are a little surprising.
The key economic call is that a recession within the next 12 months is no longer viewed as a certainty.
At present, it appears the bond market still thinks there’s a recession coming, while only about a third of economists agree.
To be clear, if we really are out of the economic woods, and the US can get through this cycle without a recession — that’s amazing.
John Authers Bloomberg 28 mars 2024
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