Räntesänkningarna är på spåret, säger Elisabet Kopelman, USA-ekonom på SEB

RE: Men Fed-chefen ser sliten ut. 

Undra på det


The FOMC was un-hawkish enough to bring both the S&P 500 and the gold price to new records

Dig deeper and the dot plot was more hawkish than the headlines

A month ago, the market viewed a March rate cut as a racing certainty. It was 100% priced in. 

The dot plot -  This time, the key measure that drove excitement was that the governors’ median estimate for the fed funds rate at the end of this year was unchanged, projecting three cuts. 

Now, we need to get into the weeds.

In total, a net five governors reduced the number of cuts they predicted. That’s halfway to swinging the decision on a committee with 19 members.

With nine members expecting two cuts or fewer, only one needs to change from here to raise the median.

Then came the press conference. Powell made no hugely dovish pronouncements but resolutely declined to say anything hawkish, either.

Bloomberg’s measure of financial conditions is almost as lenient as in 2021 when fed funds were being held at zero:

Unfortunately, Fed governors are no better at predicting the future than the rest of us. 

Its unchanged median projection of cutting 75 basis points this year served up a classic “no news is good news” rally for stocks. 

The S&P 500 climbed above 5,200, reaching an all-time high yet again. The Nasdaq 100 came within touching distance of its own record.

John Authers Bloomberg 21 March 2024


Breda uppgångar i USA följde efter onsdagskvällens positiva utspel från Fed-chefen Jerome Powell. 

Det lägger grunden för vad som väntas bli en klargrön dag även i Stockholm.

DI 21 mars 2024



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