Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think
Investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss.
The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.
The Economist 16 February 2023
Goldilocks Economy Is a Fairy Tale Too Good to Be True
James Mackintosh WSJ 8 February 2023
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/02/goldilocks-economy-is-fairy-tale-too.html
”En bred desinflationsprocess har inte ens börjat”
sade Isabel Schnabel, ledamot i ECB:s direktion
DI 17 februari 2023
https://www.di.se/live/ecb-finns-risk-att-marknaden-underskattar-inflationen/
Bad news for the ‘pessimistic bulls.’ Here are 10 reasons why a U.S. recession won’t happen.
“pessimistic bulls,” the name Gavekal Research’s chairman and chief economist Anatole Kaletsky gives to those investors who consider consider themselves “cautiously pessimistic because they anticipate an early U.S. recession.”
MarketWatch 17 February 2023
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