Englund

Rusande naturgaspriser har fått brittiska elleverantörer på fall och hotar Europas elförsörjning inför vintern. DI 15 september 2021 https://www.di.se/nyheter/energikris-hotar-europa-lagren-kan-ta-slut/

 The region’s 22-year drought is the second-worst since the year 800, and scorching temperatures, municipalities and farmers scrambling for water, lost hydroelectric capacity, and conditions from Dante’s Inferno are a chronic condition. Western states have supported booming cities and agriculture for more than a century with complex systems of dams, reservoirs and canals and by tapping groundwater. MarketWatch 15 September 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/western-water-crisis-demands-a-strong-federal-state-response-11631653332 40 Million People Rely on the Colorado River. It’s Drying Up Fast https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/08/40-million-people-rely-on-colorado.html

motsvarande drygt 2 600 miljarder kronor. SvD 14 september 2021 https://www.svd.se/krisjatten-stormades--kraver-pengarna-tillbaka China's major banks have been notified that Evergrande won't be able to pay loan interest due Sept. 20 HONG KONG, Sept 15 (Reuters)  https://www.reuters.com/business/fitch-says-possible-china-evergrande-default-may-have-broader-effects-2021-09-15/ What Is China Evergrande and Why Is It In Trouble? Bloomberg 13 september 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/what-is-china-evergrande-and-why-is-it-in-trouble-quicktake

TIPS are Treasury inflation-protected securities. MarketWatch 14 September 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-of-the-best-ways-to-fight-inflation-is-just-to-follow-the-trend-11631615233 Something in all this does not add up The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds is 1.24%, well below the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.4%. At the same time, stock markets are flirting with all-time highs. Raghuram G. Rajan Project Syndicate 2 August 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/08/something-in-all-this-does-not-add-up.html  

Inflationen ser ut att hålla i sig, tvärtemot vad alla centralbanker säger. Men räntemarknaden är säker – inflationen är död.  Låt oss hoppas det. Annars blir det inflationen som sänker börsen. Henrik Mitelman DI 13 september 2021 https://www.di.se/analys/storsta-hotet-mot-borsen/ https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 – Köpen ska bland annat förbättra på kreditgivningen och stimulera efterfrågan i ekonomin. Men det vi kanske ser är att pengarna hamnar på de här kontona /Riksbankens inlåningsfacilitet/ utan att faktiskt få effekt på ekonomin, säger Lina Fransson. Ett tecken i tiden är att investerare i Europa nu för första gången är beredda att acceptera reala minusräntor på så kallade “skräpobligationer” – Räntorna är rekordlåga och börserna är rekordhöga. Så länge det är så är det positivt men samtidigt bygger man upp väldigt mycket risk i systemet, säger Lina Fransson, räntestrateg hos SEB. SvD 14 september 2021 https://www.svd.se/investerare-flyr-borsen--hog-koplust-efter-skrap Även bild på  Johanna Englundh från Fondbolagens förening.  Börsens insiders cashar in och fondsparare drar sig tillbaka. Men vart tar pengarna vägen? Den frågan ställs i artikeln.  Det är en vanlig men felaktig tanke. Om någon säljer aktier måste någon annan köpa. Pengarna tar inte vägen någonstans. De...

(and beyond that, buying stock that is overvalued is a questionable way to spend shareholders’ money).  Cash may be high in relation to profits, but it is low in relation to market capitalization, except in Japan. In the U.S. buybacks are almost as expensive for companies on this measure as they were 20 years ago. All the previous extremes, when debt was particularly low as a share of equity valuation, came at a point when both the equity and credit markets were about to run into trouble (Nice chart) John Authers Bloomberg 14 september 2021  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-14/a-debt-fueled-stock-buyback-wave-may-not-be-what-investors-need

On this day ten years ago I published a Working Paper on Marcus Nunes' blog "The Faint of Heart" with the title "Market Monetarism - The Second Monetarist Counter-revolution". This is the so-called Monetary Disorder view of the Great Recession. Market Monetarists recommend targeting the Nominal GDP (NGDP) level.  The Market Monetarist 13 September 2021 https://marketmonetarist.com/2021/09/13/10-years-of-market-monetarist-thinking/

MarketWatch Sept. 10, 2021 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-1-trillion-that-has-flowed-to-global-stocks-in-2021-is-bigger-than-the-last-20-years-combined-11631273525

 Stefan Milo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv0RscAummQ

 the 1,776-foot office building that rose in place of the Twin Towers destroyed on Sept. 11, cost $3.8 billion and is the most expensive skyscraper ever built in the U.S. Nice pics https://www.wsj.com/articles/rebuilt-after-9-11-one-world-trade-center-is-90-filled-after-cost-overruns-and-delays-11631439002

 “We should no longer be subject to rulings by the European Court of Justice or the European Court of Human Rights!” This is, of course, the same Michel Barnier who kept insisting during the Brexit talks that Britain remain subordinate to both those courts. But that was then. Barnier, in those days, was part of the system. A loyal Europhile, he wanted Brussels to be as puissant as possible.  Now that he is running for office, he sings a very different song. The man who kept insisting that free movement of people was indispensable to the EU now wants a moratorium on immigration and changes to the Schengen deal. Daniel Hannan,  September 12th, 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/12/course-barnier-has-become-eurosceptic-french-want/ The EU would eventually be brought down, he had argued, by anti-German feeling in Europe. No, I replied, it would eventually be brought down by anti-European feeling in Germany.   Daniel Hannan,  September 18th, 2012 https://e...

The economic-policy conversation in the United States has been thoroughly transformed within the space of just a few years. In macroeconomic policy, debt and inflation fears have given way to a preference for over-stimulating the economy and downplaying the risks to price stability.  As for taxation, the tacit acquiescence in a global race to the bottom is out, and establishing a global minimum rate for multinational corporations is in.  Industrial policy, which could not even be mentioned in polite company until recently, is back with a vengeance. This time around, academic economists have been largely playing catch-up. Dani Rodrik Project Syndicate 10 September 2021 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economics-turned-upside-down-in-the-us-by-dani-rodrik-2021-09 T he right answer to any policy question in economics is, “It depends.”  Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the au...

 More than half the index’s members have suffered peak-to-trough declines of at least 10% since May, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show.  It’s worse in small-caps, where 90% of Russell 2000 stocks have already suffered their own 10% correction.  As of Friday’s close, the average stock in the S&P 500 was down 10% from their 52-week highs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Helping keep the market afloat are tech giants like Facebook, Amazon.com Inc. Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Google parent Alphabet Inc., a cohort known as Faang. But don’t bet on stocks like the Faangs to continue to prop up the market indefinitely, says Mike Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.  Bloomberg 10 September 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-10/big-up-days-are-gone-as-corrections-hit-half-of-s-p-500-stocks Ivestment gains since early 2017 have been completely dominated by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet GOOG and Facebook Mar...

The sort of MMT which is essentially functional finance, which says let’s just part the financing thing as a technical matter to be resolved among adults in a technical way and focus on the fundamental questions of what are our capacity constraints, what are the supply constraints which are real, and what are our priorities for spending -- that just seems common sense, to be honest. And I’m puzzled by the rationale for something that says, at this moment, budget balance is our priority. If you’re an MMTer -- if there’s ever been a president more suited and just agreeable to the fiat money concept, there’s never been one better than Trump.  As long as the checks had his name on them, it was all good. Bloomberg 11 September 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-11/world-economy-like-a-patient-on-experimental-drugs-says-tooze How Covid Shook the World’s Economy By Adam Tooze https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/how-covid-shook-worlds-economy-by-adam.html

 It’s also become the country that offers investors the most choice when it comes to picking stocks. Sweden -- with a population of 10.2 million people -- now has almost 1,000 listed companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the most in the European Union, outstripping much bigger countries such as Germany and France.  More than 80% of them are small caps, with market values of less than $1 billion.  So far this year, 83 companies have gone public in Stockholm, raising $6.4 billion.  Bloomberg 11 September 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-11/swedish-ipo-frenzy-propels-stock-market-into-europe-s-big-league 23 miljarder kronor. Till en liten grupp privatpersoner. På en enda dag. Det blev resultatet när 58 delägare - så kallade “partners” - i det börsnoterade riskkapital­bolaget EQT genomförde en samlad aktieförsäljning i veckan. EQT:s ordförande Conni Jonsson fick 1,7 miljarder, vd Christian Sinding liksom den operativa chefen Caspa...

Under hösten kommer EU-kommissionen att publicera ett förslag till uppdaterade kapitaltäckningsregler för banker i EU.  Riksbanken uppmanar nu EU kommissionen att följa Basel III-överenskommelsen. https://www.riksbank.se/sv/press-och-publicerat/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/nyheter/2021/riksbanken-vill-att-eu-foljer-basel-iii/ Stefan Ingves - Central bankers', BIS management speeches, Basel Committee speeches and CPMI speeches https://www.bis.org/list/speeches/author_stefan+ingves/index.htm

 Simon Clark https://youtu.be/f4zul0BuO8A

 bekräftar nu att bolaget går till börsen.  Värderingen hamnar på drygt 9 miljarder kronor, ungefär 30 gånger förra årets rörelsevinst. https://www.di.se/live/cary-group-till-borsen-vardering-pa-over-9-miljarder/

55% less than the same month of 2019, back in the old prepandemic days. In other parts of the EU, the summer season was either somewhat better or somewhat worse than in Spain. Cities and regions that tend to attract long-distance travellers have fared worse. A case in point is Rome  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/09/after-a-long-hard-summer-europes-travel-tourism-recovery-remains-a-long-way-off.html