The Inflation Fight May Be About to Turn Painful. “inverted yield curve”.

Cleveland Fed measures that remove outliers. 

The median CPI, which tracks the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes, rose at a 3.7% annual rate. 

The trimmed-mean CPI, which excludes the 8% fastest- and 8% slowest-rising components by weight and averages the remainder, rose 4.5%. 

The 2-year Treasury yield, a barometer of future Fed actions, is 0.25 percentage point below the 10-year yield. 

If it rises above the 10-year yield (an “inverted yield curve”), it is time to start thinking about recession.

Greg Ip Wall Street Journal Nov. 12, 2026 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-inflation-fight-may-be-about-to-turn-painful-1d053d79


Varje gång räntekurvan är inverterad i USA händer två saker. 

Först dyker det upp diverse förklaringar till varför denna påtagligt pålitliga recessionssignal just den här gången råkar vara ett falsklarm och att det inte är så mycket att bry sig om. 

Därefter följer en markant inbromsning i den ekonomiska aktiviteten, med tillhörande kraftiga börsfall.

Richard Bråse DI 13 Oktober 2023

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-yield-curve.html


Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Macroeconomists

“There is a reason that so many economists had been predicting a recession — and it is not because they are out of touch, or repeating talking points from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign,” Tyler writes. 

“They predicted a recession because that is what experts such as [Janet] Yellen, [Paul] Krugman, [Christina] Romer and many others had been teaching for decades.” 

It’s not that those teachings are necessarily wrong, either. They were just wrong … this time.

Justin Fox Bloomberg 26 december 2023 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/12/dont-let-your-babies-grow-up-to-be.html

Giant equity bubbles do not deflate under their own weight.
They keep going – longer than we think possible – until the Fed kills them, deliberately or by accident. 

It was how the electrification and radio boom ended in 1929 and how the telecom and internet boom ended in 2001 (after five rate rises in six months). The subprime boom was different, but ended the same way in 2008 after 13 rate rises in two years. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 10 November 2026

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/11/ambrose-this-epic-wall-street-boom-is.html



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