Niall Ferguson: Iran 2026 Is Not Iraq 2003

For the habitual critics of U.S. foreign policy in general and Donald Trump’s in particular, the analogy between today’s air raids against Iran and the invasion of Iraq nearly 23 years ago is too obvious to be resisted.

“Once again,” Simon Tisdall ranted in The Guardian, “a bellicose US president has unleashed overwhelming military firepower to force a sovereign nation to its knees. Once again, blatant lies and exaggerated claims are being propagated to justify the attack. Duplicitous American diplomacy became a fig leaf for premeditated aggression. The cautionary advice of allies was spurned. The UN, international law, and public opinion were ignored. Democratic consent is lacking. And once again, there are few defined goals by which to gauge success, and no long-term plan. . . . Like Bush, Trump manufactured a crisis, founded on falsehood, and effectively cornered himself.”

And so on.

Kriget mot Iran kan göra ”vinnaren” Trump till en förlorare

Det är sant att USA länge har varit en imperialistisk supermakt som inte tar någon större hänsyn till folkrätten och andra länders suveränitet. 

https://www.dn.se/varlden/michael-winiarski-risk-for-kaos-och-inbordeskrig/

After the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro last month, I suggested to a senior administration official that what we had just seen was not regime change but regime alteration—in the sense that, while Maduro had been replaced by Delcy Rodríguez, the structure of the Chavista regime remained in place. The alteration was that Delcy would now report to Washington, not to Havana or Beijing.

“Regime alteration,” he said, writing it down. “I might use that.”

https://open.substack.com/pub/bariweiss/p/niall-ferguson-khamenei-may-be-gone

Iran; there are no precedents for toppling a regime using solely air power

Hence Trump’s appeal to the Iranian people to rise up and take control. It all now depends on them. Even then, should the Islamic Republic fall, the impact on Iran and its neighboring states might only have begun. 

This is a country of 92 million people, with a long and proud history, but also no organized domestic opposition ready to take charge and large minorities that may well seek to take advantage of the chaos.

Of course, if Trump succeeds in forcing the regime’s downfall, all will be forgiven and his triumph would be indisputable. 

Marc Champion Bloomberg February 28, 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-28/iran-strikes-trump-goals-for-tehran-are-now-clear-he-wants-everything

Alexander Stubb om Iran: "Allvarligt och kan eskalera"

https://www.dagensps.se/varlden/alexander-stubb-om-iran-allvarligt-och-kan-eskalera/