A better predictor of recessions; Interesting chart

A better predictor of recessions is the spread between the two indicators. A recession more often than not happens whenever the spread rises to a high level and then begins to retreat.

Why?

The CCI gives greater weight to what consumers think about the economy in general, 

while the UMI more heavily reflects what consumers think about their own personal circumstances. 

A spread as wide as it is now means that consumers have greater confidence about the U.S. economy overall than in their personal situations.

The job market, for example. Things look good from a macro perspective, with the U.S. unemployment rate near the low end of its historical range. 

But from a ground-level perspective, many (if not most) believe that finding a decent-paying job is surprisingly difficult.

A recession becomes more likely when consumers become gloomy not only about their personal prospects but the overall economy as well, which is when the CCI-UMI spread begins to narrow.

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch March 2 2026

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-economy-looks-great-on-paper-but-this-split-in-consumer-mood-spells-trouble-89ad2a6e

Mark Hulbert on my blogg

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Mark+Hulbert+